May 3, 2007

Quinnipiac Poll Shows Rudy Coming Back To The Pack

On the eve of the first televised debate for the Republican presidential contenders, Quinnipiac shows that the race continues to fluctuate in the early primary season. Rudy Giuliani has lost significant ground over the last month to the undeclared Fred Thompson, but neither John McCain nor Mitt Romney has taken advantage:

Giuliani leads the Republican field with 27 percent, down from 40 percent, followed by 19 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain, 14 percent for former Sen. Fred Thompson and 8 percent each for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

The Democrats have not changed positions much at all. Hillary Clinton leads the pack with a substantial 14-point lead over Barack Obama (32%-18%), despite other polling that indicated Obama had caught up to Hillary. Al Gore comes in third with 14%, meaning that the #3 person in both parties is an undeclared candidate -- not exactly an endorsement of the current slate for either side.

Giuliani still wins the matchups with Democrats, however. He beats Obama within the margin of error (44-41), but more substantially beats Hillary (49-40) and Gore (48-41). McCain also beats Hillary and Gore by 5 and 6 points respectively, but comes up in a dead heat against Obama. The Democrats continue to have problems beating Republicans in a head-to-head race, and that comes from the thin or nonexistent favorablity ratings for the different candidates. Hillary has a negative favorability of -2% overall, while Gore has a razor-thin +8. Obama does better with a +30, but Giuliani's got a majority of people (53%) who like him, as opposed to Obama's 46%. McCain has a +23 favorability, and Fred Thompson hasn't made enough of an impact yet to get a good number.

Ryan Sager sees this poll as good news for McCain:

While Mr. McCain's favorable-unfavorable ratings have deteriorated slightly with the public at large, he's gained among white Evangelicals while Mr. Giuliani has seen an erosion. In February, Mr. McCain's fav-unfav with white Evangelicals was 53%-24%; now, it's 58%-15%. Among the same group, Mr. Giuliani went from 62%-16% in February to 57%-19% today.

These aren't huge jumps on either side. But they are evidence that Mr. Giuliani's liberal social views are catching up with him, while Mr. McCain is having some success reminding social conservatives that, though he's had some spats with the religious right, his views aren't that far out of the Republican mainstream.

I'd agree; McCain has stopped the bleeding. He needs a great performance tonight, though, to get the wheels completely back on the bus. The pending Fred Thompson bid has everyone re-evaluating their position, and that gives McCain an opening to start changing minds.


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Comments (8)

Posted by owl2 [TypeKey Profile Page] | May 3, 2007 11:50 AM

McCain started at zero with me but had gained a couple of points of late over the war. Watched his interview Sunday and he managed to remind me why I am begging all Pugs, please do not force me to vote for McCain. I do not want McCain as my President, nor his trusty sidekick Graham as my VP. Just remember his sidekick in 2000 was Hagel. Hagel.

Go Rudy. This is the only shot at keeping the Dems out and I still say that people are ignoring The Voice. The Voice could say that he planned to only recruit the best of little green men for the military and it would not matter as long as he smiled and said it with a nice calm Voice. You might as well stop paying attention to what he says because his voters are not. They are voting for the first black, or a young handsome, or a sensible sounding Dem or who reminds them of days gone by with the JFK Voice.

Almost an impossible uphill battle for Pugs......Rudy is the only one that will give them a race and understand that winning is the goal here. I like Fred and Mitt but have zero confidence they stand a shot at the national. Rudy will get his hands dirty.

Posted by Adjoran [TypeKey Profile Page] | May 3, 2007 12:10 PM

"...stopped the bleeding," has he?

They all do, once they've bled out. The guy is/was the supposed frontrunner for the nomination, and he is polling under 20% for a very poor second place.

No amount of sugar coating - including the statistically insignificant differences in his and Rudy's pos/negs among ONE sub-group of primary voters from one poll to the next - can change that.

Most of us would hold our nose and vote for McCain if he won the nomination but, fortunately, it won't come to that. All his vaunted "independence" is coming home to roost. Here's your payback for BCFRA and the Gang of 14, Senator - don't choke on it.

Face it: McCain wouldn't have made a blip in 2000, either, if it hadn't been for Democrats crossing over to vote for him in an attempt to bloody up Bush a bit. There was no real contest on the Democratic side that year; they've EIGHT candidates this time, and four of them are serious contenders. The crossovers will stay with their own party, and McCain will take a huge whipping from the base he so disdains.

Posted by Carol_Herman [TypeKey Profile Page] | May 3, 2007 1:16 PM

Rudy just needs his health, to hold on.

And, up at DRUDGE, today, it seems Romney, who must be losing ground, "is calling President Bush" offering his support. Meaning there will be one condendah who will use the current occupant of the White House as his "launching pad."

Well, in politics, there are always winners and losers.

And, the best lessons in what could happen, I happened to get from reading TEAM OF RIVALS, about Lincoln.

Anyway, the mistakes made back in 1988, that gave the White House to TWO FAILURES, both from the Bush family business; will not be a working entity anymore. Gone. And, the loss? It's gonna go to the small Eastern States, like New Hampshire. And, to Iowa. And, to Bob Jones "university," which is not an accredited school.

For some reason, Beldar, going into a bet with three friends, rating the 1008 election results, puts Hillary in the White House. And, then you get your choice of veep. Where Warner's name shows up on the donk's ticket.

Surprise, to me. But then Beldar's only betting.

I can't imagine that the donks aren't aware of their weaknesses. It's one thing to own Congress on ONE PERCENT. It's a whole other ballgame; translating that into national politics. And, looking at who could best provide coattails. All hillary provides are massive hips. Is she the fat lady who comes to sing?

We're not in 1988, anymore. Which also means McCain, who can shoot from his mouth, isn't picking up the traction he once had. And, yes. Guliani is the "new guy on the block." For mainstream.

What does this mean for the right?

My guess is that when the race gets closer; both shore lines, left and right, will be gone, beyond horizons; as campaigners will reach for the middle.

At least the Ma and Pa Kettle Show has not quite identifed the REAL CORE of American Independent Voters, yet. While I also think I-R-A-K's gonna be Bush's stinker. Why? Because he is nothing more than the Realtor for the House of Saud.

The president, ahead, who lets the truth really hang out, will help Americans think about this much, much better. Why? Because we haven't put our eggs in the Saud's basket. Nor do the arabs hold cards, here. (They don't even hold cards in Israel.)

Yesterday, a cousin of mine and I, had lunch together. And, I mentioned how Arik Sharon had wanted the PEOPLE to pick their own ministers; in the same way we send people to the HOUSE in Congress. District by district. Because she was there! She spotted the problem. The arabs live all over Israel. Not just in isolated pockets. If you tried to design "districts" you'd empower the arabs. Who are ungrateful bastards, for the most part. Even though the Israeli arabs get far more educational and health benefits living in Israel, than they would even if they lived under the thumb of the Saud's, anywhere else in the Mideast.

"Under the thumb," has never translated to the wealth of nations. Just the progeny of one man. With the calamity of cousins marrying each other, to contain their wealth. Give the Man Upstairs a few more generations. The rot will become more noticable.

Meanwhile, we really shouldn't give away the store.

Posted by abwtf [TypeKey Profile Page] | May 3, 2007 2:22 PM

I'd be happy to not see another poll this entire year.

Posted by owl2 [TypeKey Profile Page] | May 3, 2007 4:37 PM

Just to counteract the new chief Dem supporter (I assume she thinks they and their own special 'UN' will give Israel a better deal?) .....sure. At least my Bush had enough sense not to party with Arafat in the WH?

Incompetence? Is that like 'the very idea of keeping Gonzales' instead of appeasing the Dems so they could move on to the next kill. Imagine that. Fighting even when the entire world decides to be so darn two faced, disloyal and ungrateful? Of course they had a lot of Repub helpers that now 'see the light' almost as good as the Dems were 'mislead', poor babes.

Thank you President Bush and I am just like what I heard Dennis Miller say......he said he didn't care if the entire world now disagrees about Iraq (even if it included Bush himself), he still feels the same. It was the right decision that needed to be made. Nothing has changed. Nothing. Even if the O'Reilly's of the world have decided they had rather be popular.

Now one and all can paint Bush as the 'incompetent one' till the cows come does not make it true. I think it says more about people and their own special interest issue that they put above all. We should only be so lucky as to get another Bush in our next candidate. One can only wish for one with his strength. God bless, Mr President.

Posted by Carol_Herman [TypeKey Profile Page] | May 3, 2007 8:52 PM

Oh, Owl2. You are so lost!

I happen to think Olmert is Israel's BEST DEAL, though. And, I also think the Winograd report got it wrong. Because they didn't mention James Baker. They didn't mention the Saud's. And, they didn't take anything BUT a desire to see LIKUD back in business, into consideration.

Meanwhile? Olmert's holding on. I'm not impressed with 150,000 people showing up on a parade's grounds. More people, as a matter of fact, bought bags of potato chips, today.

As to what "Israel gets," ... This involves the diplomatic scene. NOT giving away territory. And, probably a stronger realization for many, here; that I-R-A-K is not Bush's strongest suit. It didn't even help his father.

Israel will not be buried by any American president, either. Probably due to the Man Upstairs, than anything else.

As to Americans needing to go to vote to "halp" Israel; I think that's a stupid idea. Americans should cast their votes for the best man, possible. And, hopefully BOTH PARTIES have learned something from the crap they've been serving UP.

This remark includes the GOP, ya know?

Dole wasn't so hot.

Kerry was a dog.

And, Far Algore is even more incompetent than Dubya.

Why do people assume all we're gonna see are retreads?

Up at Lucianne is a story that broke today. From Iraq, where the SAUD's funded the building of a new school. And, it had sophisticated bombs built right in. Lucky our American soldiers found the wires. And, the school, for girls, hadn't opened yet. But there ya go.

The Saud's keep dreaming up new 9/11's every single day. And, if this doesn't show ya WHY Americans are less than thrilled with the way Bush sided with the enemy, nothing is gonna halp ya see it.

But people really are catching on!

Now, in the world of investments, when you pick a losing stock; and you forgot to sell. It goes down the way ENRON went down. And, Bush has the capacity of hurting at least one segment of the GOP.

Yup. I'm calling it that way. I sold my Bush stock long ago. (Last Summer. When James Baker made it very obvious that the Saud's were playing with a stacked deck. And, Bush wanted us to be oblivious to it all.) No different than Jimmy Carter.

Of Course, at least Jimmy Carter didn't use the military on this crazy gambit that you can bring democracy to the arabs; when there's a whole bunch of them sitting on the world's 2nd, or 3rd largest oil reserves.

Yes, the Saud's manipulate through their terrorist organizations, in their worldwide mosque coverage. And, yes, too. They know the media. And, the media are their whores.

So, no. I wasn't surprised to see they were going to blow up hundreds of Iraqi girls as soon as they got to their "new school." (With Iraqi contractors doing this work. They didn't even need Chechyans here. Who knew?

But the bigger factor? Fewer care.

You can't help these people.

The few who can afford to supply all the terror are as hungry for the "landscape" as they were on 9/11. What were we going to trade? Well, let's see? We were going to get more religion on our planet. RIIGHT. As if you can force people to attend churches. HELLO. No. You can't!

As to the God Bless stuff, I'm saving mine for OLMERT. I appreciate the Good Work from the Man Upstairs. He really can help people who are handicapped in races against the real nasties.

Bush ain't home free. There's more than just Tenet mad as all get-out. Which shows ya. Something important happened to Tenet, that the Medal of Freedom didn't buy off. To think what People give for honors; and how little it's worth when it's given as a "buy out?"

Meanwhile, keep the stock as long as you like.

Posted by Monkei [TypeKey Profile Page] | May 3, 2007 10:22 PM

Bush ain't home free. There's more than just Tenet mad as all get-out. Which shows ya. Something important happened to Tenet, that the Medal of Freedom didn't buy off. To think what People give for honors; and how little it's worth when it's given as a "buy out?"

Good point, but what blind idiot ever even assumed that GWB was even close to being home free? Chalk Tenet up as just another disgruntled ex Bush employee according to the right wing wackos. How many more of these disgruntled employees have to surface before even the dumbest right winger starts to see a pattern?

Posted by owl2 [TypeKey Profile Page] | May 4, 2007 9:35 AM

Lost? Could be but I do not have "Saud" tattooed on my forehead. Don't let the "God bless" mislead you so........I did not vote for Bush Sr second term because I did not like his Party's convention and frankly, the people on stage turned me off. Lesson learned? I do not have to like my fellow party members but focus on the goal and vote with my head.

I like Hunter, Fred and Mitt but I will have to really hold my nose to vote for ANY candidate that I hear say one more bad word on Bush. ANY. At least Rudy has enough sense to realize this (unlike a Newt that just can't seem to help himself). I can't stand these new hindsight Republicans and would never vote for any of them except...........I have a responsibility to help protect my country. So I will vote. Not by my lonesome out here either........go read AJ over a period of time. It's choices......his immigration or Malkin's? I do not agree with his but Malkin's is what lost the last election.........not Bush. I choose AJ's. Same thing on presidential candidates. I choose Rudy and I support Bush. And no, why would I blame Bush for Iraq when I was gungho to go and thought Clinton should have done the work. Our first internet/MSM war showed mistakes. Ya mean he really is not God?