Captain's Quarters -

They may need to start asking themselves why their middle classes have found flyover country a destination.

It's called capitalism. If there's enough demand for the high-priced housing, prices will stay high. those who want those high-priced houses, but can't afford them where they are, will move to a place where they can afford them.

As I recall, the 90s saw a growth of native-born Americans (read white people) returning to large cites. The economic growth of the time put a lot of money into housing. Now I think we're seeing a situation where many of those who returned to the city just can't meet the costs, so they are leaving again.

Big cities have more opportunities for immigrants. Immigrants will always flock to them.

Barone puts too fine a point on it. The dominant factor is out of control illegal immigration. The trends he notes were already openly visible in L.A. 20 years ago, where as a poor, struggling graduate student the absence of a middle class was becoming painfully obvious. Odd that the elites have taken so long to notice.

I believe that Mr. Barone is overly optomistic that such trends will maintain the two party system in the U.S. Those middle class whites moving away from the coasts tend to keep voting for the same policies and politicians that created the high cost of living in the first place. Also, since birthrates among blacks and hispanics is so much higher than whites eventually states like Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and Nevda will become as solidly blue as Colorado has now become.

What Mr. Barone should really have noticed is that the demographic trends in the U.S. ensure that the Democratic Party will be the one, dominate party in the U.S.

Consider New Jersey and North Carolina: NJ is said to lose at least 2 House seats after the next census, and NC will pick up 2. And lots of the people moving here are from NJ, Pa, NY. I see their SS#'s.

So, why are so many Northerners moving down here into not only flyover property, but Redneck Land?

Captn - As you should be well aware the # of Americans leaving Cal started to exceed the # coming her when the second Gov. Brown was Gov. You sir are one of the Americans who left my great state to go east. When Davis was Gov the # of Americans leaving was more than the total immigration for 2 years. Arnold has reversed both trends - not that I am happy to see so many on the Freeways.

The trend lasted from ~1975 to 04. It seems to have reversed the last 2 years as more Americans are again coming west than those going east.
Cerritos is a great example. 20 years ago it looked like I needed to master 5 languages to communicate. Today it looks like English will be plenty.

"According to Barone, the flight comes mainly from the middle class. Those leaving have mainly been replaced by low-wage-earning immigrants, creating models for John Edwards' Two Americas. "

In the Southwest's larger cities, Austin for example, one must be bilingual Spanish/English in order to apply for a clerical position for city, county or state employment opportunity. By not practicing English as the formal national language, it would only be fair to teach Spanish if that is a prerequisite for employment.

I moved out of LA in '92 after the LA uprising to rural Michigan. I wonder if those rich people left in the Hollywood Hills will want to continue to pay high taxes to give to illegal immigrants, who are unwilling to assimilate?

"...why their middle classes have found flyover country a destination."

For this refugee from Washington, DC, the answer is easy: To return to civilization as we know it.

Now, ten years later, I can tell you it was one of the wisest decisions of my entire life.

Jabba: I doubt that those rich people in the Hollywood Hills much care one way or the other. I leaned some time ago to distinguish two categories of people that we commonly lump into the category of "rich": (1) very-high-income people who work like heck to make that high income, and (2) the independently wealthy who live off of accumulated wealth and generally don't work at all.

The second category is the one that we're talking about in Hollywood, and it's a particularly gentrified strain at that. One thing I learned about this category of people when I lived in S. Florida is that they simply don'c care what things cost (as opposed to the first-category wealthy, who are often quite frugal). Keep in mind that our system taxes income, not accumulated wealth. The second-category people have investment income, but they really don't rely on it. Some of them only care that their investment income cover their cost of living; some don't even care about that because they figure they've already got enough money for a lifetime. Money really does not have any value to them, other than being what they live off of.

When you see that point of view, you can understand why they support high-tax and anti-business policies: They do it because it's no skin off of their nose. They've got their money. They are pretty much unaffected by market cycles and financial reversals. In fact, a period of deflation would make their savings go even farther, so they're all for it, to the extent that they care at all.

After watching our MECHA mayor mau-mau his own cops this week, moving out of LA is looking better. I think a lot people are realizing their families have a better chance with hurricanes and tornados than they do with Phony Tony and the LA Unified School District...

I've often been fairly happy I live in Northern Virginia versus the District of Crazy (Leftists), but the other day I happened to read in the paper that the Arlington School District recently approved a school district budget of $416 MILLION dollars.

That's half a billion for the smallest county (in area - 26 sq. miles), in the country.

Arlington has 18,000 "students", so that works out to be $23,000 per "student".

What will this cost in 10 years? Why am I paying outrageous property taxes for a school district that I would NEVER even think of sending my children to?

I actually love living in Arlington, but I think I would love living somewhere else even more.

superdestroyer

I hate to tell you but you are incorrect, Colorado IS NOT a Blue state.

1992 Colorado Presidental Election Results

William Clinton
44,909,806 43.01%

George Bush, Sr
39,104,550 37.45%

H. Ross Perot
19,743,821 18.91%

1996 Colorado Presidental Election Results

Robert Dole
691,848 45.80%8

William Clinton
671,152 44.43%

2000 Colorado Presidental Election Results

George W. Bush
883,745 50.75%

Albert Gore Jr
738,227 42.39%

2004 Colorado Presidental Election Results

George Bush Rep
1,068,233 52.0%

John Kerry
960,666 46.8%

Do you notice a tread? I do and Colorado is not treading blue. It is SOLIDLY RED!
You can check for yourself.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

Fjordman recently posted I think at Gates of Vienna or The Anchoress that LA is becoming a 3rd world city and Hollywood (biz) is thinking of moving out.

They move someplace else, it'll get interesting.

I would think Nevada, no personal income taxes.

--

CO is becoming a blue state.

There's no doubt that people are fleeing the high cost areas of the US for lower cost areas. But Barone is wrong to assume that these are mostly private sector religious people who would support a socially conservative GOP in "flyover country". Arizona and Nevada, for instance, are more libertarian than anything (AZ voted down a gay marriage ban). And there's some evidence that the more moderate Republicans from the coasts are changing the make-up of the GOP establishment as they bring their values with them. (Real Clear Politics has an article today on how this is affecting the South Carolina GOP).

I've lived in Chicago (not really a Coastal city no matter what Barone says), Phoenix, Detroit and a mid-sized town in West Michigan. The quality of life is better in flyover country.

Unassimilated minorities turn wherever they go into a hole. This is what drives the phenomenon called "white flight".

No, Moonbeam, it's not because they're evil xenophobes who can't stand diverse neighbors. People leave because they don't want to live through the process of hole-ification.

Large cities are laboratories for lib policies. The inevitable results of said policies, combined with invading hordes, only accelerate hole-ification.

ordi,

If you look past the presidential elections, you would see that Colorado has a Democratic governor, LT Gov, that the Democrats control the state house 39 to 26 and control the state Senate 20 to 15.

Also, Allard is probably going to be replaced with a Democratic Senator.

Colorado will probably not even be in play for the Republicans in 2008.

It does look like the ex-urbanizing folk maintain their Donk voting habits. So, after putting the Donks into firm control of the coastal cities - and running them down the toilet - they are jumping out to a place that is "different" and "better" only to start putting into power the very policies that swirled the old place.

"they are jumping out to a place that is "different" and "better" only to start putting into power the very policies that swirled the old place."

What's often missing from the discussion of the causes of Islamofascism, is that Islamic countries in the Middle East have long been practitioners of socialism.

Socialism has been a miserable failure in the Arab Middle East, resulting in rampant corruption and massive unemployment, swelling the jihadi ranks.

Leftism fails everywhere it is tried and the Democrat brand is no better. Why can't these people recognize that they are the problem?

superdestroyer

Mr Barone’s article was about presidential, congressional and Senatorial races NOT statewide races. That is what I based my response on.

The data I sited proves the trend has been red for almost 40 years. I went further back in the numbers and found that since 1968 Republicans have won the presidential race in CO. So with the races Mr Barone was speaking to, your assessment and your statement that Colorado is solidly blue is incorrect.

Your argument that CO has a Dem Gov and LT Gov so it is solidly blue is ridiculous. By that standard Massachusetts was trending red when Romney ( R ) won the Governorship there twice. We both know Mass is not red and it will not be red for longer than we are alive. Minnesota is another blue state with a red Gov – Lt Gov too. And let’s not forget the Grand Daddy of them all California and ARNOLD ( R )! These examples disprove your argument and show that you are the one being overly optimistic. Hey, there is nothing wrong with being optimistic but be prepared if your disappointed.

As for Allard’s seat “probably” going to a Dem, there is some room here for debate. From what I hear, Allard is going to retire and there is talk that John Elway ( R ) is being courted into running. Now what other Coloradan has that much name recognition and is so loved and worshipped in CO?

Colorado congressional members are fairly evenly split with 4 Dems, 3 Repubs. As to the history of those districts, I am sorry there are too many of them for me to waste my time on the research.

I think you can also see that stating Colorado will “probably” not even be in play for the Repubs in 08 is just as ridiculous. We don’t even know who will be the nominee for either party. Dems do have a leg up as their convention will be in Denver but then you must also realize MN will be in play due to the Repubs holding their convention in Minneapolis. MN was closer to going to Bush than CO was for Kerry. So it may be a net wash for both parties as CO and MN both are 9 electoral Votes.

At best for your side, Colorado is purple but it is not blue and certainly not soldily blue.

Being right up front about it, I left California 12 years ago for the Mid-West because I didn't like what was tranpiring in LA County where I lived. When at the local store I felt threatened just having to walk into the store by Hispanic “Youths” congregating around the entrance, when Hispanic and Blacks are killing each other a mile away, could even hear the gunfire, and schools becoming bi-lingual, I said this is not the America I grew up in, when to Vietnam to defend, etcetera. I left for somewhere where it is still somewhat like the America I grew up in. No bone about it, I do not tolerate the PC crap, don’t feel I have to associate with people that I don’t want to, I don’t embrace the hard Black culture, or the Hispanic culture, didn’t think I should have to keep a gun by my front door, keep a large dog in my back yard, etcetera, and I really didn’t live in that bad of an area.

Call me a racist, or whatever you want to, but I feel more confortable and less threatened living in an area where people still behave as how I grew up. So I left, and never looked back. Still go to San Diego to visit my mom, she would leave too but really is too old now to readjust to a different living environment. After being there about three days can’t wait to leave. Its like living is a third world country. Its actually rare in public places to hear the crowd speaking in english. Yes, those who live in the enclaves probably are not really affected much. But, those who could not afford to live in private gated communities or very rich neighborhoods are forced to deal day in and day out with the continued and ongoing degrading of social well being and high crime because our government won’t do anything about illegal’s, is afraid to clean up areas because they are called racists, and all the rest, so its out of there. A really sad situation. Yes, Seattle, Portland, SF, LA, SD, NY, Boston, NY, NJ are all probably going to see more white flight in an ever higher proportion.

Maybe some day, hopefully not to late, the majority will wake up and rebel against what is transpiring. Personally, glad I am in my 60’s, because I don’t think I will like the country much in another 50 years if it continues like it is. That is if we have a county, or are not all living under Shari law by then again because our government is afraid to offend anyone. What a bunch of crap!!!!!!!!!!

RDI,

I think you are making the classic mistake of partisan Republicans in translating presidential results to see the trend in a state. Ten years ago Colorado was 5 Republican House Rep to two Democratic. Now it is majority Democratic. Bill Clinton carried Colorado in 1992 so the Republicans have not won Colorado in 1968.

As the Hispanic Population grows and more Californians move to Colorado, virtually all political pundits see Colorado as trending blue and since the state government is now dominated by Democrats, it is unrealitic to call Colorado a Red State.

California and Mass were not affected by having Republican governors since all other state wide offices in addition to the state houses were control by Democrats.

If you look at California, Schwarzenegger is running the Governor's office the same as if Gray Davis was still in office.

If you look at the Hispanic trends, more states will become like California (once a state in play for Republicans but now solidly Democratic).

Also see that every state north of Virginia is solidly blue with little hope of any Republican gains.

The same now goes for the upper midwest.

The real question for the Republicans is can they concede seven of ten largest states in every presidential election?

Being right up front about it, I left California 12 years ago for the Mid-West because I didn't like what was tranpiring in LA County where I lived. When at the local store I felt threatened just having to walk into the store by Hispanic “Youths” congregating around the entrance, when Hispanic and Blacks are killing each other a mile away, could even hear the gunfire, and schools becoming bi-lingual, I said this is not the America I grew up in, when to Vietnam to defend, etcetera. I left for somewhere where it is still somewhat like the America I grew up in. No bone about it, I do not tolerate the PC crap, don’t feel I have to associate with people that I don’t want to, I don’t embrace the hard Black culture, or the Hispanic culture, didn’t think I should have to keep a gun by my front door, keep a large dog in my back yard, etcetera, and I really didn’t live in that bad of an area.

Call me a racist, or whatever you want to, but I feel more confortable and less threatened living in an area where people still behave as how I grew up. So I left, and never looked back. Still go to San Diego to visit my mom, she would leave too but really is too old now to readjust to a different living environment. After being there about three days can’t wait to leave. Its like living is a third world country. Its actually rare in public places to hear the crowd speaking in english. Yes, those who live in the enclaves probably are not really affected much. But, those who could not afford to live in private gated communities or very rich neighborhoods are forced to deal day in and day out with the continued and ongoing degrading of social well being and high crime because our government won’t do anything about illegal’s, is afraid to clean up areas because they are called racists, and all the rest, so its out of there. A really sad situation. Yes, Seattle, Portland, SF, LA, SD, NY, Boston, NY, NJ are all probably going to see more white flight in an ever higher proportion.

Maybe some day, hopefully not to late, the majority will wake up and rebel against what is transpiring. Personally, glad I am in my 60’s, because I don’t think I will like the country much in another 50 years if it continues like it is. That is if we have a county, or are not all living under Shari law by then again because our government is afraid to offend anyone. What a bunch of crap!!!!!!!!!!

superdestroyer

You really need to stop projecting. I am not the one being partisan. I am looking at the numbers IE “VOTER” trends in the Presidential elections in CO. We all know the only poll that counts is on election day and the dems record in CO on Presidential Election day is not pretty.

You are correct that Clinton took CO in 92. How you fail to note that Clinton got ONLY 43.01% of the vote.
Bush the Elder got 37.45% and Perot got 18.91%. The CW is the vast majority of Perot votes would have gone to Bush if Perot had not run. A good test of that CW showed up in 96. The year the votes were split like this:

Robert Dole --------------------45.80%
William Clinton ---------------44.43%
H. Ross Perot --------------------6.59%

Not convincing as a trend toward the blue. It was an anomaly as every election year after that shows.
As for states flipping to the Dems, well that trend is that more blue states flipped to red from 2000 to 2004. Matter of fact ZERO states flipped from red to blue and two states flipped from blue to red (IA, NM) in 2004.

As for Arnold’s running of CA, yes he is a liberal Repub however he is not running it as “Gray Out” Davis would have. Davis would not have been friendly to business as Arnold is. Arnold is bringing back business’ to CA, the trend under Davis would have been the continued flight of business. Arnold is running CA with the word Compromise as his main thrust, Davis would not have done the same.

As for the Hispanic vote, CW says Hispanics help the Dems however, pundits are just starting to realize the illegal immigration situation might hurt Dems more than Repubs. With the terrorists arrest today, the illegal issue is only going to heat up more and burn the dems who want open borders.

Your last statement made me chuckle. You wrote, The real question for the Republicans is can they concede seven of ten largest states in every presidential election? The article we are debating is showing you data that shows the states that are now thought of as the bigger ones are actually become smaller and Red states are now becoming bigger. The 2010 census will be used in the 2012 Presidential race and it don’t look good for Dems. Less congressional seats and less Electoral Votes for the Dems. You are in denial, the population trends are going against your party. As time marches on Red state voters have more children than blue state voters, it don’t look pretty for your side.

We left Milwaukee and moved to Phx metro (actually way out of town).....it's simple why, really...no jobs, high taxes, and many many non-work orientated people. A govt. that catered to them...causing the classic vicious circle. Liberalism at work! So we now have much better jobs, low taxes in an area that is more conservative..and so works better. However the good economy attracts more and more of the liberal useless...so who knows if it will last? So here's your trend to watch...an area of the country works well because it is conservative, so it attracts those from the non-working areas who are suffering. But they come with their preconceived political ideas and vote for that sort of politician, who proceeds to make things more liberal because that's better for the political class...scary, isn't it?

All amounts to one thing - Americans know what makes a thriving community, a place that is a good place for our posterity to grow and thrive - and it ain't compatable with Dim Liberal Socialist anarchy and irresponsibility under the "guise" of "Personal Civil Rights".

Funny how the Blue folks always look for a healthy community to infect, rather than a place to escape from the Red Zone to!