June 5, 2007

Fred Moves Into Second

It's amazing how far a non-candidate can go in a race. Fred hasn't begun to run for the Republican presidential nomination, and Rasmussen shows him almost within the margin of error for the lead:

With former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson taking his first formal steps towards a Presidential run and the immigration debate creating challenges for Arizona Senator John McCain, the race for the Republican Presidential nomination has an entirely different look this week.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) remains on top, but his support has slipped to 23%. That’s down two points from a week ago and is his lowest level of support all year. Earlier, Giuliani had consistently enjoyed support in the mid-30s. That was before Thompson’s name was added to the mix and before Giuliani stumbled on the abortion issue in the first GOP debate of the season.

Thompson, who just formed an exploratory committee and is the newest face in the race, immediately moved into second place. With 17% support, he is within six points of the frontrunner. That’s closer than anybody has been to Giuliani in 20 consecutive weekly polls. Thompson is also competitive in a variety of general election match-ups with potential Democratic nominees.

According to Rasmussen, Thompson actually leads Giuliani among men likely to vote in the GOP primaries. No other demographics are available, but that presumably means that Rudy has a significant lead among Republican women. That seems a bit surprising, given Rudy's marital woes and his reputation as an authoritarian. The bigger news is that Giuliani has slid from 37% in March to 23% in May -- still ahead but looking more and more vulnerable.

Romney managed to move past McCain and into third place in the past two polls, mostly by treading water. Up until last week, he trailed McCain, but passed him and went briefly himself into second place.

How does Thompson do against the Democrats? Not well, unfortunately, but that may be because of his relative anonymity until recently. He loses by three points to Hillary, but gets stomped by John Edwards and Barack Obama by double-digit deficits. In contrast, Rudy ties Hillary and beats Obama by razor-thin margins, although he loses to Edwards. John McCain loses to all three, as does Mitt Romney.

Thompson won't be in tonight's debate, but he will be on Hannity & Colmes just afterwards. Expect him to overshadow the debate, but the GOP needs to start building momentum somewhere.


TrackBack URL for this entry:

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Fred Moves Into Second:

» The Thompson Machine from Tales of Modernity
It looks like Fred Thompson is going to overshadow the GOP debate yet again tonight: With former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson taking his first formal steps towards a Presidential run and the immigration debate creating challenges for Arizona Senator... [Read More]

Comments (23)

Posted by Zumkopf | June 5, 2007 9:06 AM

I wouldn't start handicapping this race based on Rasmussen. Any poll that has Silky Pony as the front runner over all the other candidates cannot be taken seriously.

Posted by pilsener | June 5, 2007 9:40 AM

Fred Thompson is currently ridng a wave of "he looks and sounds Presidential". The comparison to our current President Bush makes Thompson's demeanor a major plus.

If he wittily espouses a serious Reagan type governing philosophy, Thompson stands a good chance of getting the nomination and winning the general election.

The experience comparison to Hillary is interesting also, both served as attorneys during the Watergate Hearings (Thompson as Chief Minority Counsel), both will have served 8 years as a sitting Senator by the time of the 2008 election. I'm sure that won't prevent the media from portraying him as "just an actor".

Posted by Scott Malensek | June 5, 2007 9:47 AM

The dynamic shift will come between the IA/NH and the 2/5 primaries. That's when people will look at "who is electable" and when people will start looking for substance/dismissing the all-sizzle-no-steak candidates.

It'll be interesting to see if the alienated base of the DNC sucks up and goes for one of the three pandering candidates who want to leave room to be mainstream, or of the base is so alientated that they decide to go vote for Ron Paul and make a difference with their votes by creating mischief in the RNC?

Posted by Bill Faith | June 5, 2007 9:56 AM

This country is ready for a Not Bush who's also a Not An Idiot and Not A Socialist. Fred!'s done an excellent job of differentiating himself from Bush by taking a strong anti-amnesty stance and he also didn't hurt himself any by saying we should have surged in Iraq three years before we did. If the amnesty bill actually goes into effect the public will want someone in the White House whom they trust to push the enforcement aspects of it to the fullest and not jump the gun on normalization. That narrows it down to Fred! and Mitt, and a lot of us are still waiting to see who Mitt's going to be next week. I added a link to my 2007.06.04-05 Fred! Roundup .

Posted by Steve Przepiora | June 5, 2007 10:10 AM

Edwards and Obama ahead of anyone has got to throw up some red flags as to the poll. Although Obama has a lot of press fawning over him he has no experience whatsoever. I can believe he would win a general election.

Posted by Bill Faith | June 5, 2007 10:14 AM

... And if the shamesty doesn't pass, people are still going to be ready for a President who'll enforce the existing laws. Building the part of the border fence that's already been authorized and fining a few big employers for hiring illegals would go a long way towards putting the country back on track. Rudy won't do it. McCain sure as summer in Phoenix won't, and a lot of us aren't too sure Mitt will. And the Dims ....

Posted by brooklyn | June 5, 2007 10:28 AM

we all welcome Fred Thompson into the race...

why isn't he debating?

seems odd, and quite unfair to all involved, especially the voter.

anyhow, the hype better match the Man, as this is a one term Senator, (and the Senate is awful in my book), who h as no CEO experience, and decided to return to acting instead of wanting to remain fighting for the Conservative agenda in Gov.

serious questions should be asked, what did Mr. Thompson do for illegal immigration while in Office?

Posted by Red Wolverine | June 5, 2007 10:31 AM

I'm from many in the Reagan Democrat crowd up in Michigan that they do not trust Rudy on the 2nd. This, more then abortion, could spell doom for his campaign.

Red Wolverine


Posted by RBMN | June 5, 2007 10:32 AM

Re: Bill Faith at June 5, 2007 10:14 AM

Re: "shamesty"

The biggest sham is "enforce the existing laws." They are laws that keep employers PERFECTLY SAFE if they accept good forgeries from workers. Currently they are NOT required to authenticate documents--just look and fill out the I-9. They can volunteer to use Basic Pilot, but it's not required.

As I've said before, and nobody believes me, EMPLOYERS who hire workers with forged documents also hope the lynch mob kills the compromise bill, because otherwise they'll eventually have to start authenticating documents for real, and they're going to lose workers that way.

Posted by RBMN | June 5, 2007 10:51 AM

Re: RBMN at June 5, 2007 10:32 AM

To clarify, they'll lose workers because as Chertoff said, 15 to 20% of illegals will not pass the background/fingerprint check, and won't get their Z-Visa. Warrants or unsolved crimes will pop up in the background/fingerprint check.

Posted by Bachbone | June 5, 2007 11:10 AM

When Democrat ads start showing Guiliani's ex lambasting him and his honor himself openly squiring his paramour to public events while still married, his negatives will drive women's support down. Those chickens haven't come home to roost yet.

Posted by Saul | June 5, 2007 11:27 AM

Ha, I can't believe that Thompson has managed to completely overshadow the GOP debate - yet again!

Posted by syn | June 5, 2007 11:27 AM

I'd like to get behind Guiliani 100% but I've heard that politician whose 'tough on terror' talk while holding social liberal positions before, even voted for it, however, all that resulted from that experience was electing a Nanny statist mayor who ended up banning smoking, banning trans fats, proposing to pay poor people to be responsible and as for the 'tought on terror' all that has resulted since his election success was to profile old ladies in the subway and tax-fund an Islamic madrassa in Brooklyn.

Sorry but I can't help it, Bloomberg makes me think twice about voting for Guiliani.

Posted by Bookworm | June 5, 2007 11:42 AM

Not that I don't like Thompson, but it's pretty easy to look good if you're not sticking your neck out and forcing attention on yourself, the way the declared candidates are.

Posted by NRA Life Member | June 5, 2007 12:14 PM

Bookworm and Brooklyn are bringing up good points about Fred Thompson. I like pretty much everything he says, but that's really not enough in my view, otherwise, we'd have elected Rush Limbaugh as President a long time ago.

How will Senator Thompson staff the Executive Branch. From what I've seen, this inevitably comes from associates who are sometimes demeaned as cronies which is fair or unfair depending on who we are talking about.

Seriously, who would Fred pick for AG, Sec. Defense, Sec Treasury, Sec State. etc. What is his plan to transform the CIA and Dept. of State into pro-American organizations instead of the pathetic offices they have become over the past 30 years. This is the CEO stuff that Romney's fans think are his strong points, and Senator Thompson will have to show us that he is as good or hopefully better.

Posted by Adjoran | June 5, 2007 12:43 PM

It's waaaaay too early to be paying much attention to "match-ups."

Thompson will enter strongly, if his "explorations" find what he's looking for, but it remains to be seen if he is willing to raise the kind of money he will need to compete nationally in this truncated schedule. Organization is also something of a problem, with so many of the party's experienced staffers and consultants already committed to other candidates - although, with McCain continuing to fade away, his people will be looking for work pretty soon.

Posted by Carol Herman | June 5, 2007 1:33 PM

The conundrum for Guiliani. It's an interesting pickle.

Because Guiliani, EARLY, coupled his ass to George Bush. Using 9/11.

This was the door that Bush, II, opened. To get his presidency "on a roll." Instead of in the doldrums, where it was stagnating, after he got "selected" by the Supreme-O's in 2000.

Unless you don't wonder why Guliani hasn't divested himself from this presidential loser; in which case you have no questions I can answer.

On the other hand? 9/11 was Guiliani's boost up the mainstream's ladder to success. He bacame the voice of outrage!

He's also a very moderate republican. Where Bush, in his incompetence, has destroyed the social conservative movement in America. Why? Because it's not a "contract" selling to MAINSTREAM Americans. And, it leaves today's "under 30 crowd" cold.

This was Guiliani's "plus." He could galvanize votes from "independents," where both parties lag behind in popularity. But he wasn't able to divest himself of Bush! So he's been running a campaign that says "Bush II is wonderful."

No he's not.

Guiliani's other mistake? He's really friends with McCain! So IF you have to figure out what "baggage" a winning contendah would bring to DC, you're given "choices."

Like Casablanca. The movie actually filmed two endings. But the first one worked. So you never saw the re-write.

Back to basics for 2008. What kind of men would come to DC, if a republican wins the nomination, and then the election?

Mr. Michael, the other day, was right! What we are seeing now is not the "general rules" for a campaign. THIS IS JUST THE PRELIMINARIES. This is the "insider" stuff.

While you do know the GOP's money from "da base" has dried up, don't cha? All those fired volunteers. Working the phones. And, getting the anger of most Americans directed into their ear pieces.

Whose minding the store?

The anger out there, by the way, is nothing new. It's been the current that drove James Baker all these years; to solidify his base. And, make lobbying pay off BIG TIME.

But, if those fired GOP callers, looking for funds, is any indication; it seems "something has dried up out there, no?"

McCain doesn't stand a chance! In my book, neither does Mitt Romney. Massa2shits isn't about to provide the country with another "big family" name on it. Customers, I think, are looking elsewhere.

Howie Dean made a $40-million-dollar killing; when Joe Trippi tapped the Internet. POOR PEOPLE! You know how it was done? Dean promised to "kill" BUSH! And, for that? Ordinary Americans, living from paycheck to paycheck, found their wallets. And, used PLASTIC. To send in da' money.

Of course, the mainstream of the democrapic party wasn't ready for da' base. (They're still not ready for da' base!)

But that's part of the unknowns, ahead, for Fred Thompson. Can he get the Internet to interface with him, over a "tip jar?" And, yes, folks. Ordinary people don't part with flying Benjamin's and Jackson's unless they're promised red meat. And, blood.

At least I no longer question Guiliani's achilles' heel. How can he lambast Bush without tarnishing his own 9/11 credentials?

And, given America's dance with Alzheimer's, why should 9/11 play a role in 2008?

We've got two years left of Bush II in office. That's like running with Jimmy Carter from 1978 to 1980. Those years, behind the scenes, were very busy ones for Reagan.

Too bad, when Reagan captured the prize, though; James Baker "sold" the man from California, on his expertise in DC. We're still paying through the nose for this!

While the G-8 now seems like a dud; making Bush look like a first class traveler to nowhere interesting.

And, when he comes back? Olmert is here. Not the most popular guy from Israel, either.

While over in Lebanon, away from the fauxtography of Rooter's, it seems at least one paleostine "refugee camp" is biting the dust.

While in Irak, Sadr is back from Iran. And, he's calling the shots! So, they have a constitution that forbids militias? So what?

Everything Bush touches is destroyed and left a mess. Not even sure there's a way out, until the animals in the Mideast decide they want to fix the crap that's broken, themselves? Isn't this more true than not true?

As to our history; we began in 1776 with an atrocious problem of arab piracy, to our fledging nation. It took 40 years; and 4 presidents. To come to James Monroe's 2nd term, where he finally fought back. (First? He had to cancel Napoleon's plans in the Caribbean. We did that. Dropping Napoleon's fleet into the sea.) Ah. Then, we went BIG TIME. From the shores of Montezuma ... to the Shores of Tripoli.

Taking time to do the right thing. Just as Winston Churchill said. Americans EVENTUALLY do the right thing. After they try doing just about everything else.

Bush? The presidency he takes into INFAMY. But that's okay. Gore and Kerry were worse.

Oh, and Guiliani "can" wake up in time. Fred Thompson's a fire cracker on his shoe. And, the fuse was lit a few weeks ago. Showing ya that you can't turn large ships around, at sea, on a dime.

At least Guiliani just can't coast into a win in 2008.

Ideally? This will be resolved without too much GOP bloodshed. And, maybe? If Guiliani has what it takes? He can offer Fred the veep slot?

Or? The reverse could happen. Just depends on which way the INDEPENDENTS want to see this country moving.

Posted by Carol Herman | June 5, 2007 1:44 PM

If you haven't read Tom DeLay's book, yet; you're missing out on a brilliant man's strategy pages.

And, it comes to mind that at least Newt Gingrich is nowhere to be found, here! Ah, yes. Newt. The "media dahlink."

Anyway, it seems, if you're interested in knowing this, that Newt's "new, new program" is for "FINDING SOLUTIONS."


DeLay says GOVERNMENT IS THE PROBLEM. Ain't gonna be finding "new solutions." Just Newt being his old dictator self.

Bush II. From that same cloth. You can't tell those blokes anything!

As to WHY DeLay is "just fighting Ronnie Earle, now?" Well, DeLay thinks 2008 will be a very bad year for republicans. And, the problems he sees? He says it's gonna take six years ta fix.

For what it's worth.

I still think Americans "can" split their tickets. Voting in a republican president, in 2008. WHo then gets handicapped by the donks.

But those donks? Like Israel's Labor Party. If you give a close look? A bunch of old and tired men. Who lost their luster 40 years ago.

And, it wouldn't be the first time I look at Israel like the canary in the coal mine. To figure out what the diseased and dying politicians look like as they stand on their last legs.

Posted by LeaningRt | June 5, 2007 3:00 PM

"That seems a bit surprising, given Rudy's marital woes and his reputation as an authoritarian".

I think freedom to choose is a bigger issue than marital status Captain. Slick Willie didn't lose too much popularity with the fairer sex after getting the BJ in his wife's house.

I like Fred Thompson, but I think he is far from earning this adoration. He had a very undistinguished career as a Senator; was labelled as lazy and didn't care much to work with the Senate; and is not participating in the debates which leads me to believe that he fears it will hurt him more than help.

What is important to me as a Republican voter is Fighting Terrorism, Economic Growth (with low taxes) and a federalist approach.....Rudy passes all those tests for me. But what is paramount, is he is the most electable in the general election....in that he will capture the largest amount of independant voters.

I have difficulty understanding the one/two issue voters that dislike him because of opinions he holds that will never affect law. Go to Church for your moral compass, let Rudy wield power over Moveon.org.

Posted by Carol Herman | June 5, 2007 3:34 PM

Get something clear: Fred Thompson has not announced!

What's the difference?

All the other 8 contendahs have announced their desire to RUN. Fred's "just in the exploratory stage" as yet.

And, the whole TWO YEARS EARLY bit? Seems Bush II has managed to lose millions of people from the GOP's roster. And, "going out early" and hitting the boonies is the way "support" was drawn in the past.

Reagan spent a very busy two years from 1978-1980 meeting anyone who could put a group together; icluding meeting voters in the living rooms of homes belonging to ordinary American citizens. Back in those days? The "conservatives" were a functioning arm of the John Birch Society.

So, as much as people think "things stay the same." No. They don't.

And, yes. I think after "round 3" of the debates; where so far Guiliani hit Ron Paul outta' da park; we've got Fred, finding venues where he will be heard.

Hannity & Comles? Me? I don't tune in the TV. But the Internet is getting its serving of RED MEAT.

This also pushes away the pundits. Who used to own the airwaves. And, what got shown on the "tubes" in the homes; where people, if they didn't want to view one show, would hit the remote.

Here? People for the most part LOOK. I have no idea what the traffic is, but I'd guess you get 100 or 1000 people "looking" ... without saying a thing.

This remains the "mystery."

While there really is a shift! To the Internet. And, its ability to carry a lot of traffic.

Yes, Guiliani is still in the "lead." But he's shedding. McCain? Totally shed whatever advantages he thought he possessed.

Does money talk? Well, if so, how come John Kerry Heinz' wife hasn't written a tell all, about what she tossed, getting her husband nominated in 2004? Of course, she sent him into democrapic headquarters, afterwards, looking for refunds.

The other thing? We know the Rockefellers have tried to make it into the White House. But the disgraced Nixon carried a grudge. That's why Gerry Ford, another brainless wonder, chose Nelson Rockefeller for his 1980 run. Which promptly went into the ground.

Out of the mess in DC, then? James Baker found the brass ring to riches. And, yes. He manuevered the Bush's into the White House. Baker Botts. They've been feasting for twelve years.

But all good shows, like vaudeville, come to the ends of their runs.

One of the pressures I'd like to see? An awareness by the 8 contendahs that Bush II is a dog, on par with Jimmy Carter. (Did everything Jimmy Carter do, go wrong? Surprisingly, the answer is that Z-BIG-NEW started the ball rolling towards clandestine behaviors; that led to the "funding" of the Afghans; to hit the Russians HARD. And, cause them to collapse.) But the "results" happened on Reagan's watch. And, Reagan was no slouch when it came to giving the old soviet bear "you know what."

We're in a mess in Irak. Mostly because of mismanagement.

So, again. Whose gonna be first to state the obvious? My money's on Thompson.

And, I'm no longer betting on Guiliani. He's got those dictatorial instincts that come off as harsh, when they see the light of day. He'd make a good leap-over, though; to the donks. Who might be "hoping" to attract a better candidate than the crap they have!

It was a similar event in 1952. Harry Truman wasn't gonna win his re-election bid. And, both the donks and the republicans, went out of their ways to court Eisenhower. Interestingly, Ike would have been more comfortable as a donk. (There would have been NO Nixon!) But Ike didn't want to have to keep getting his nose brown, as president. He'd done enough of that stuff as chief of staff. And, he thought as a republican he wouldn't be hampered. Still, he worked hand and glove with Lyndon Johson. Met with him regularly. GREW GOVERNMENT, TOO.)

So there ya have it. We've had fifty or sixty years worth of government growing like TOPSY.

While the best line so far goes to Tom DeLay. Where he ridicules Newt Gingrich. Calls Newt's "gamble" .... "FINDING SOLUTIONS." HELLO. Government's the problem! Chucking this in favor of yet more government is about as insane a choice as any out there.

T'marra. I'll read the results of the "debates" in recap.

Just like the old Broadway. Not just the stars, waited for the critics appraisals. Reading the critics ripping and tearing into human flesh; as they talked about "shows" ... either brought the audiences buying tickets. Or not. You're only as good as your last appearance; where, on Broadway, to wish you well they say: BREAK A LEG.

Posted by Carol Herman | June 5, 2007 3:52 PM

In 1980, when Reagan was running; the detractors where spewing that he "was a divorced man."

So be it. Didn't amount to a hill of beans.

Oh. And, Nancy was a clothes hawk. Which was true. Not the only hollywood dame who wouldn't get caught dead outside without her panty hose on; and her jewelry. Why is this so? You're asking me? Better to go and ask Joan Rivers.

As to Donna Hanover; AND her twisted kids; Guiliani can handle that part, easily. Because they're tabloid headlines. And, that means? You're getting your name in print. An important commodity.

Also, no one mentions Guiliani's health. It's as if a prostate cancer diagnosis can be taken in stride.

While? The Wyoming republican senator just died. Yeah. The Wyoming governor is a democrap. But the GOP hands him 3 choices. And, he picks one of them. So the score card for the senate? Still keeps the GOP in the minority.

Are you still hoping for the best?

One thing this election cycle is doing ... is finishing off a few of the old, and lame, horses. McCain won't be back. Hillary might not make it.

Doesn't mean there can't be a few surprises.

BIG MONEY talks. Fred's not looking for the "big money."

And, who says he can't talk about DC with a bit of knowledge? He's certainly smarter than Dubya.

What to make of his young wife? Wouldn't surprise me if she gets pregnant, again. Which does remind me of Jackie Kennedy. And, how well Camelot looked up on that big stage. That life gives ya sucker punches? Well, we know that, too.

And, it would be nice, if 2008 does nothing else; it gives men who were born poor a chance to make it.

Why are we still dealing with the "big families?"

Andrew Jackson, back in 1824, was not taken seriously by the "genius" Henry Clay. So a dirty deal went down. Butting John Quincy Adams into the White House. And, Clay into the Secretary of War's chair, in Adams' cabinet. Didn't last long.

Andrew Jackson, the FIRST man of the people! Took the prize out of the hands of the aristocrats. Who for all intents and purposes were out to make the presidency the residence of the rich men's sons.

You didn't know the Bush's have this kind of money? Made at the hands of James Baker. Jimmuh Carter's not the only phony to grow rich.

Among the hidden unknowns, ahead? TURNOUT for 2008. Ya can't tell yet. Because primaries are for the insiders.

While the internet is getting plenty of things worth chewing the fat over.

Posted by exdem13 | June 5, 2007 5:57 PM

I dunno, for a man who's not FORMALLY running a campaign, Fred! is doing well. I'd say he is running a serious campaign right now. He's doing a better job than 75% of the announced contenders, too. I'm sure he will eventually formally declare his candidacy, after some of the poseurs drop out and he can get more air time. (More time, heh, I made a funny. :) ) It's a shrewd strategy so far, so we should let it continue.

Posted by Carol Herman | June 5, 2007 7:52 PM

exdem13. You bring up an excellent point; some of the 8 surely will be missing from condendah lineup, soon. Or somebody's gonna have to call in Donald Trump!

I also think ZUmkopf's observation is hysterical. The silken pony, indeed! As if funny things don't go on in the donk's tent!

Or? How I remember how Cal Pundit lost his edge. he was trying to "help." So, at his site, which was a money site for Howie Dean, he "oops" and brought in Wesley Clark. Didn't go over so big, ya know?

I still wouldn't make any bets on 2008. Ya know why? BOTH PARTIES are now in the minority! That means there's lots of MAINSTREAM VOTERS who are gonna walk around "disappointed." Sure. Former dems. There's certainly more than 13 of them out there.

And, for a time I thought McCain would easily transfer allegiances. And, run as a donk.

I also don't see Hillary making it, anywhere. Why? Because in America WE vote. The press, as yet, does not vote for us.

That leaves Guiliani. Should he not make it to the GOP alter? Have you asked yourselves what happens when there are election results? You think everything's a given?

Why not a 2008 3rd Party run OF SUBSTANCE?

Heck, in 1860, after twenty years of going down the toilet, the WHIGS were finally flushed.

The Republicans? Well, they were just a rag-tag outfit. When Lincoln saw the opportunities better than the others. (There were 3 "favorite sons" entering the "teepee" in Chicago. For that race.)

Given the moods out there; and there are a lot of different moods to contend with ... What happens? In the past? When the parties nominees were lackluster PEOPLE STAYED HOME.

Yet, if there's nothing else to see;

And, we're still in "primary" season;

At least it's obvious that something must have been lacking. For Fred to reach such prominence. On a few, well placed appearances.

Including the one to Michael Moore: "Try a mental institution, Michael."

Now, give yourselves a test. Fred's TV time came at the same time (the 1st debate), where Guiliani socked Ron Paul outta da park. Which episode do you remember, better?

Being a "front runner" means you're the guy to beat.

While on a crazy field? If you don't win in one race, for the GOP nomination; whose to say there aren't gonna be second chances?

Can the Internet sustain a 3rd party run? Something in 1992 that took one Ross Perot exposure on Larry King Live?

Tonight? There's a morsel up at Drudge. Larry King is rubbing his eyes. And, points out how he's being eclipsed by Anderson.

The 3rd debate goes to Larry King?