June 8, 2007

Will Fred Damage McCain? (Update: No Big Loss?)

The advent of Fred Thompson has been seen by analysts as a challenge to the top three Republican candidates for the presidential nomination -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney. Conservatives dissatisfied with the options have wanted a traditional conservative with less political baggage to enter the race as a white knight, and so far, Thompson fits the bill. Today, though, the Washington Post reports that McCain may be especially vulnerable to Fred's entry, especially at the organizational level:

John Dowd represented Sen. John McCain in his darkest hour, the "Keating Five" scandal. He supported McCain the first time he ran for president in 2000 and signed up to be a major fundraiser for him in this year's presidential race. But when former senator Fred D. Thompson began thinking about running, the Washington lawyer changed his mind.

For McCain (Ariz.), who started off as the favorite to win the Republican nomination but now trails former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani in most polls, Dowd's move signals yet another threat to his struggling campaign. As Thompson (Tenn.) builds his team of major fundraisers such as Dowd, the challenge for McCain will be to collect the millions of dollars necessary to maintain a nationwide campaign and convince Republicans that he is their best bet to retain the White House.

"I am very sorry to see what's happened to John," Dowd said in an interview. "I don't think his campaign is being well run. It's been over-managed. He blew through $8 1/2 million. It's a difficult thing to leave a friend and go to another friend. But we lost the John McCain I knew."

With the second-quarter deadline for reporting money raised only weeks away, Thompson's decision to become a candidate comes at a particularly bad time for McCain. After the initial fundraising results this year showed him behind former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and Giuliani, McCain reorganized his fundraising staff and promised that the results would become apparent on June 30.

Losing Dowd has to hurt, but this seems a bit overwrought. The Post can only point to Dowd for high-level defections from McCain to Thompson, but Fred has attracted others from competing campaigns, too. For instance, Mitt Romney lost Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) ten days ago. Giuliani lost Curt Kiser in Florida to Fred in the key fundraising state, which Fred's campaign has explicitly targeted.

Organization-building will continue through most of this year, and the composition of each will change during the campaign. Backers will come and go depending on the dynamics of the race, including when candidates enter and leave it. Having Dowd leave doesn't help, certainly, but McCain has held onto FedEx chair Frederick Smith in Tennessee. It's just too early to assume that the lineup has been fixed in stone.

McCain has more to fear from Fred's entry on a political basis, and so do Rudy and Mitt. The Republicans have an enthusiasm deficit in the primary race, with supporters increasingly lukewarm for all of the top three candidates. For the most part, they have held their breath for a breakout conservative candidate who could rally the base and get people excited about the 2008 election. Fred has an opportunity to capture that desire, and if he does, he could rapidly outpace the field.

Note: I have not yet congratulated my good friend Jon Henke on his new position at New Media Strategies, working for the Fred campaign. It's a smart move by all involved. Jon is effective and relentless, and as he proved in surviving the Allen campaign, Jon has the right stuff for a national presidential campaign.

UPDATE: I've talked with a source with the McCain campaign, and they emphasize that this story is very overstated. First, Dowd only raised a few thousand dollars for McCain; he is not exactly a rainmaker for the campaign. They also tell me that Dowd informally distanced himself from the campaign weeks ago over McCain's position on torture, a rather fundamental disagreement.

According to the source, the Fred Thompson campaign has already started chatting with McCain's fundraisers, but so far have only Dowd to show for the effort. They expect Fred's team to continue to sound out their donor list, but feel pretty confident that he won't get many takers.


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Comments (35)

Posted by Enigmaticore | June 8, 2007 10:02 AM

Henke is working for the Thompson campaign, not McCain.

Posted by Captain Ed | June 8, 2007 10:09 AM

Yeah, I caught that just after I clicked "Save". I had hoped that I corrected it before it got too many views.

Posted by syn | June 8, 2007 10:13 AM

What I like about Fred Thompson, he represents the Individualist not the Collectivist.

America is a Republic and all the social issue including public education are messing up the American landscape. All the social issues should return to the States for them to decide through legislation not kept under the control of a centralized groupthink government too big and too powerful to allow for the pursuit of individual Liberty and Justice for all.

This path towards centralized government control taken by both parties is only leading us free people down the road to serfdom and bankruptcy.

Posted by brooklyn | June 8, 2007 10:28 AM

But Fred Thompson's voting record is basically the same as McCain's...

"Thompson and McCain voted the same way on 83 of 102 CQ-defined “key votes” (81.4 percent) during the eight years the two men served together. Thompson agreed with Brownback on 57 of 70 votes (81.4 percent) and with Hagel on 57 of 71 votes (80.3 percent)."

The hype doesn't quite equate with reality.

Certainly Fred Thompson is welcome to the race, and may make a great President.

Would be happy to see him elected, as well as Romney or Rudy.

But Fred Thompson worked on McCain's Campaign in 2000, which opposed tax cuts, and he even voted for...

Voted YES on funding GOP version of Medicare prescription drug benefit. (Apr 2001)

Voted YES on favoring 1997 McCain-Feingold overhaul of campaign finance. (Oct 1997)

Voted YES on allowing more foreign workers into the US for farm work. (Jul 1998)

Voted YES on visas for skilled workers. (May 1998)'

The fashion of many, seeing image instead of substance is really quite interesting.

Mr. Thompson is a fine Conservative, but his record actually matches others who are vilified by some.

This is not a liberal, but neither are any of the sound Republican Candidates for the Nomination.

Would Thompson's entry into the race hurt McCain?

Certainly, he has the image of someone more Conservative, even when it really isn't the case.

While Rudy and Romney have sincere CEO credentials, a proven track record of success, and a fine history of dealing with the liberal slant.

Posted by brooklyn | June 8, 2007 10:34 AM


'centralized government control taken by both parties'

so funny...

so that is why the Republicans are for TAX CUTS and the Democrats are for TAX INCREASES.

the equating of the Democrat Party with the GOP is mindless.

could not be more foolish, and self destructive.

Conservatives base their position on fact, not fashionable nonsense.

but then again, maybe that is why some empowered the likes of Nancy Pelosi in the last election of NOV. 2006.

because they no longer pay any attention to reality.

it is all hyperbole and diatribe.

Posted by patrick neid | June 8, 2007 11:21 AM

will Thompson hurt McCain?


McCain will hurt McCain......

Posted by courtneyne109 | June 8, 2007 11:26 AM

Senator McCain is already damaged - before this campaign even started. It's not his opposition to the Bush Tax Cuts or his airy quip about the new immigration bill that "...if anyone has a better plan - let's hear it..."

It was 2000. When the Straight Talked Express blitzed her way to South Carolina, McCain (to quote Ma Richards) "got hit with all that Bush money". He lost and the nation saw a mean, scary McCain.

Posted by syn | June 8, 2007 11:32 AM


Do you realized that you contradict your own arguments...re-read you post about Thompson/McCain and what you wrote about Republicans regarding tax cuts

That said what is Rudy's stance on gun control, on federally funded abortion, on undocumented workers?
Honestly I don't believe Guiliani would have voted any differently on illegal immigration than have Mc Cain or Thompson.

.I'll vote Rudy or Thompson simply because we are at war and we need an image of strength, Romney is too weak an image to fight Islamic Jihadism.

However perhaps you are correct and I am wrong, none of the politicians running are about limited Federal government control and the march towards serfdom continues. Hey, even Rudy couldn't lower NYC burdensome city tax, today they are higher than ever.

I just believe it would be a better America if we returned to the Republic for which we stand and put all the social issue sback in the individual state control so our federal government can accomplish the primary job they are required to do...protect our nation and her borders.

Posted by swabjockey05 | June 8, 2007 12:11 PM


Take it easy on syn. I agree with most of her comments (I'll bet she's "hot" too!).

I'm a non-Republican who has never...and probably will never...vote for a Dhimicrat.

Pls remember that as CE has pointed out in the past, when someone shrieks "It's your fault Pelousy is in charge"...to anyone who points out the flaws of certain Repubs...it makes the shriek-er sound like little more than a Republican Shill.

Posted by wolfwalker | June 8, 2007 12:29 PM

Brooklyn: the two votes on legal immigration are perfectly sound conservative positions, and I've heard here and there that today Thompson recognizes that McCain-Feingold is a failure.

Thompson is pro-security, pro-gun, and generally seems well to the right of the leading candidates. He isn't an ideal candidate, but he's far and away the best of the current lot. My primary concern about him right now is his health: can he withstand the stresses of the campaign?

Posted by rbj | June 8, 2007 1:17 PM

Voted YES on allowing more foreign workers into the US for farm work. (Jul 1998)

Voted YES on visas for skilled workers. (May 1998)'

Sounds like good votes to me. We need someone to harvest the crops, and Silicon Valley has been screaming for years that they need more H1B visas. I'd rather have those folk come in legally.

Posted by LuckyBogey | June 8, 2007 1:31 PM

"The hype doesn't quite equate with reality."

Brookyln is right! If and when Fred gets in the race, we shall see if in fact he is the second coming of Regan or just another RINO. The proof will be in the pudding.

The McCain/Lindsay ticket never had a chance to win the nomination. He was only the front runner in the media eyes. McCain needs retire and go back to AZ and count the tumbleweed and all the illegals that are coming across the border.

Posted by Carol Herman | June 8, 2007 2:50 PM

From Ann Coulter's mouth, because there was a segment on the Net, showing an additional amount of time; beyond Fred's 7 minutes with Hannity.

Hannity had asked Fred Thompson about his votes on Clinton's Impeachment. He voted "yes" on obstruction, but "no" on perjury. Just for your information.

And, here Ann Coulter let the mind set of the conservatives rip! She said she'd never vote for Guiliani, because he comes from a Blue. State. The same is true for Mitt Romney. But then she tore into Fred's conservative credentials by saying ...

HOW TYPICAL OF FRED. Just like other politicians who have to win in Red States, they do THE BAREST MINIMUM to get elected.

Unlike Ann Coulter's view point, I think this gives Fred a leg up.

Guiliani is still miles a head of him.

And, per Drudge, McCain's run out of money. Can he keep sitting there during these debates? Well? As far as I'm concerned Ron Paul's not going anywhere, either.

Literally. And, figuratively. Also, the reason Guiliani stands out is that he's willing to attack democrats. While there's a herd mentality to the conservative blokes; constantly going to how much they just love Jesus.

Something tells me Jesus doesn't vote.

And, while (as Mr. Michael says), so far we are ONLY in PRIMARY SEASON. We're not at the main event. Though I think Guiliani will look as good then, as he does now. Let him just stay healthy.

McCain didn't make his mistakes, alone; though they are self-inflicted. Passing from McCain-Feingold, to this amnesty debacle. You just gotta wonder why he is so innept at understanding a very large cross-section of voters!

Yes, Bush makes the same mistakes.

But Bush IS president. And, McCain is only a "wanna be."

And, in the main event the man who can best attract the most, will gain the most votes.

Newt Gingrich is already predicting a clean sweep for the donks in 2008.

Which means?

You've got a very big Newt pissing in your tent.

And, you've got Tom DeLay, whose very quick-witted; coming out and saying "Newt's got a new plan. It's called "solutions." HELLO. When you're talking about the government you're talking about THE PROBLEM!

Would Guiliani "pick" Fred Thompson for a veep?

Well? We can think of a balanced ticket; and Fred THompson probably won't come off as a "foaming at the mouth" religious nutter. It would make for an interesting tag-team. Instead of the usual "throw away" veep slot.

Since Drudge says McCain's out of the money; he's basically no longer competitive. Sure. They all show up for the limelight. But the booby prize still goes to Ron Paul.

What's the saddest stuff to see of all? Is how dishonest the press is these days. No one is held accountable, anymore, for what gets told. At least Chris Muir is on it.

Posted by Jim C | June 8, 2007 3:46 PM

Would you expect McCain's campaign to say anything differently though? They certainly wouldn't want it to get out just how bad the bleeding really is.

Jim C

Posted by C. D. Jewell | June 8, 2007 4:26 PM

I've looked at all the current candidates and I like Thompson. Matter of fact, you can call me a Fred-Neck! If you believe the next GOP candidate should be a natural communicator who's both a fiscal conservative and strong on defending America, you too might be a Fred-Neck!

Posted by ShochuJohn | June 8, 2007 5:24 PM

Ed says, "They also tell me that Dowd informally distanced himself from the campaign weeks ago over McCain's position on torture, a rather fundamental disagreement. "

Carol says, "But the booby prize still goes to Ron Paul."

If you had told me in 1997 that my beloved Republican party, the party of individual freedom and limited government, would in a mere 10 years be deriding the one candidate they have left that actually stands for those things (Paul) and another candidate would be losing support because of the novel position that he is opposed to torture (McCain).

If this trend continues, I expect that for the 2020 Republican primary, there will be one joke candidate who is still opposed to torture and another candidate that is losing support because he satkes out the un-mainstream position of being anti-cannibalism.

Democrats, weak on soylent green.

Posted by william | June 8, 2007 5:30 PM

This immigration reform boondoggle doomed any chance McCain had.

Teaming up with Ted Kennedy is no way to motivate Republicans.

Posted by gaffo | June 8, 2007 5:57 PM

taxes smaxes - who cares!

A man should pay is bills - no free lunch Brookyn, unless you want to act irresponsible and just charge your bill to your kids - like a child would.

As for government control. the party that tells me how to pray, what I can and cannot do in my bedroom, promotes a police state and a Monarchy!!


Democrats now support less intrusion on the citizen than your hypocritical party - the Republicans.

They also support paying for services instead of crying and whining when they can't just shirk their responsiblity by cutting taxes and charging to our future generation.

Posted by Joe | June 8, 2007 6:20 PM

Can't wait for the dogfight that will be the gop primaries.They'll savage each other, no holds will be barred, the fur will fly. Does Fred have any substance? or right now is he all hype, you know, the savior for the party. I saw him on tv, he looked old and tired. A likable guy, but so was Bush.

Posted by gaffo | June 8, 2007 6:34 PM

"If you had told me in 1997 that my beloved Republican party, the party of individual freedom and limited government, would in a mere 10 years be deriding the one candidate they have left that actually stands for those things (Paul) and another candidate would be losing support because of the novel position that he is opposed to torture (McCain)."

Ya amazing how the Republicans have gone from the Conservative end to the Fascist-Radical nutter deep end since 911.

oh well, they will redicalize themselves out of existence ala the Wigs.

at this point it can't be soon enough!

maybe the Libertarians will end up taking their place as the Major Party table - i hope so.

Posted by Rose | June 8, 2007 6:37 PM

BTW, Drudge says McCain's campaign is broke, McCain's staff says they'll raise $12+Mil.

I don't see Fred as a THREAT to McCain, I see him as a SUBSTITUTE - timed to come in when McCain's candle finally sputters out.

Fred didn't kill his campaign - he did that himself, with the Gang of 14, McCain Feingold, the "anti-torture" bill, entertaining the idea of being HANOI JOHN'S running mate for several months - wasn't it 7? - getting himself censured by the Arizona GOP Caucus while getting himself RE-ELECTED ONLY THANKS to DIM votes - all BEFORE the cracks of this AMNESTY travesty were made totally manifest.

Meanwhile, Fred has shown himself to be a full-fledged GANG OF 14 member at heart - with his vote and support of McCain Feingold, who recently told Sean Hannity he was comfortable with his former decisions, that he had done the best he knew to do at the time (oh, yeah, MORE RECENTLY, saying he'd make some adjustments, NOW), centering at that conversation, primarily on McCain Feingold and also his vote that Clinton WAS NOT GUILTY of PERJURY in his Senate REMOVAL hearings.

Since Fred is a former prosecutor who worked on the Watergate hearings, his very immediately recent excuse that this was too "trivial" in the minds of the Founding Fathers to pass muster as an excuse for impeachment didn't find any traction with me.

"Trivial" was Fred's word for Perjury in a personal injury lawsuit connected to Clinton's reputation as a serial rapist and adulterer.

Trivial is how Fred sees the pursuit of Justice of the High and Mighty - when the situation won't improve his own career.

I'm confident that the Gang of 14 just searched for a hurry-up replacement for McCain, when they stuck their finger in the air regarding McCain's real world chances.
And since Fred has not been in Congress a few years, but has been polishing his IMAGE in Hollywood, on a "Law and Order" show, which does NOT reflect HIS OWN VALUES - i.e. the vote that Clinton was NOT guilty of Perjury - geeeez, guys, the deposition was aired on INTERNATIONAL TV - gimme a phrryqueine break, here.

Would "Law and Order" allow any of their top-rated GOOD GUYS to take that stance???????? EVEN IN A TV EPISODE?????

But Fred already did it in real life, when it counted the most!

So we see what HE does under pressure - HE IS JUST TOO BUSY BEING ONE OF THE "GOOD OL' BOYS" TO BE BOTHERED WITH THE RAMMIFICATIONS of holding a fellow "Good Ol' Boy" to task! - EVEN AS A FORMER PROSECUTOR!

Oh, and yes, Jesus votes. Remember, He said, be *Salt and Light, and BE A GOOD NEIGHBOR - and DO UNTO OTHERS AS YOU WOULD HAVE THEM DO UNTO YOU.

ALL His Laws entail being a solid and constructive member of the community.

Unlike Democrats.

Go check out His conduct at Jericho, when He decided the city needed a change of administration due to corruption.

And Numbers 16 and 25. Revelations 1-3.

Oh, yes, He votes.

*Salt: in the original Greek language, as in good food seasoning and Preservative; NOT as grass killer, water poisoner.

Posted by Rose | June 8, 2007 7:40 PM

"...the two votes on legal immigration are perfectly sound conservative positions, and I've heard here and there that today Thompson recognizes that McCain-Feingold is a failure. "


A few months ago, he said he thought he made the best decisions, and he stands by them.
And that he is comfortable that he did his best, with the choices he has made. Stop.

Regarding McCain Feingold and the Impeachment vote that Clinton is NOT GUILTY of Perjury.

Then last week, he said that McCain Feingold didn't do what they intended, what he hoped it would do, and it needs some fixing.

THIS week, he said that he voted according to what he thought the Founding Fathers would do regarding the Not Guilty of Perjury vote - calling it a "Trivial" matter, no rising to the requirements of the Founding Fathers for impeachment.

And that "of course", the McCain Feingold bill would need some changes to make it do what it was intended to do.

Keep in mind - he was one of 11 GOP Senators who voted for McCain Feingold.

He was one of 4 (FOUR) GOP Senators to vote that Clinton was NOT GUILTY of PERJURY. A former prosecutor who says our Founding Fathers would find Perjury a "TRIVIAL MATTER".

So, please keep in mind, that when he says McCain Feingold "didn't do what it was intended to do" --- JUST WHOSE "INTENTIONS", and whose CONSEQUENCES was he figuring on when he signed on to it?????

I see a man who is totally unbothered by any prick of conscience when he finds himself in the company of Dim Liberals, and NOT walking in Harmony with GOP, much less Conservatives.

I see a man who keeps modifying his answers to Sean Hannity the closer he comes to considering jumping into the ring, as inquiries into his behavior get a little more intense.

"The vote of your opponents is the most honorable mark by which the soundness of your conduct could be stamped. I claim the same honorable testimonial. There was but a single act of my whole administration of which [the opposing] party approved... And when I found they approved of it, I confess I began strongly to apprehend I had done wrong, and to exclaim with the Psalmist, 'Lord, what have I done that the wicked should praise me?'" --Thomas Jefferson to Elbridge Gerry, 1812. ME 13:162

Associate yourself with men of good quality if you esteem your own reputation for 'tis better to be alone than in bad company.
- George Washington

It is better to offer no excuse than a bad one.
- George Washington, letter to his niece Harriet Washington, October 30, 1791

He who is void of virtuous attachments in private life is, or very soon will be, void of all regard for his country. There is seldom an instance of a man guilty of betraying his country, who had not before lost the feeling of moral obligations in his private connections.
- Samuel Adams

Samuel Adams:
If ever time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in Government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin.

Patrick Henry - Bad men cannot make good citizens. It is when a people forget God that tyrants forge their chains. A vitiated state of morals, a corrupted public conscience, is incompatible with freedom. No free government, or the blessings of liberty, can be preserved to any people but by a firm adherence to justice, moderation, temperance, frugality, and virtue; and by a frequent recurrence to fundamental principles.

Posted by Carol Herman | June 8, 2007 8:19 PM

Dear Rose.

The last time I looked, politicians were all about WINNING!

Ditto, for Miss America contestants!

So, when Ann Coulter, who can definitely deliver "over the top" ... tore into Fred Thompson, for his choice to vote "for" impeachment; while also voting against it. Did something smart politicians do all of the time.

Even the bill on immigration contains "gimmicks."

Gimmicks where individual congress critters try not to hurt their re-election efforts; when their seats come up for renewal.

Politics is all about the 'sound byte."

And, IF there are people who think that taking an extreme position is the way to win an all-or-nothing election; good luck to 'em.

I just don't bet things that way.

Ron Paul is very extreme. And, he's got such devoted nut cakes as his supporters, that they tear into polls done by CNN. To Little Green Footballs.

That's how I first noticed Ron Paul's name. Reading about these antics up at Little Green Footballs. Where, for "Round #3" Ron Paul wasn't even one of the 8 choices. (That's because there were ten men on that stage in New Hampshire.) And, Charles Johnson has a magnificent way of showcasing some pretty crazy behaviors.

As to McCain, he guessed wrong. He guessed wrong attaching his name to Feingold. And, he guessed wrong, again; "halping" Bush confuse his role as President; with actually convincing Americans about where he stands. Most people are no longer clueless. I think Bush is getting judged as a coward. Capable, like his dad, of saying things. Even offering people the opportunity to "read their stinking lips." But they lie a lot.

Why did Bush get involved wtih Ted Kennedy? Well, ya know? As soon as the Supreme-O's selected him, in 2000. He went to Ted Kennedy; and these two boobs came up with "No Child Left Behind."

Bush hasn't got much of a legacy, now.

And, McCain, who "could'a travelled the ring" as the guy unjustly dumped by the GOP, back in 1988 ... Comes across instead as a man with as big a tin ear as Bush has. Nobody is gonna give another boob "4 more years."

As to where McCain will come up with $12-million, I gotta laugh. He is NOT the front runner!

Neither is Newt Gingrich. Who is pissing IN the GOP tent! I keep waiting for people to notice.

And, yes, I'm glad I read Tom DeLay's book; because he really puts the problems out there. (So, too, does Ann Coulter.) Doesn't mean we wear the same pairs of glasses. That's just how things distribute. My pair of glasses is different than your's.

But I do learn when I garner information from people who are basically honest. Pungent? So what? Newt's pee is much, much worse.

But as DeLay said, Newt Gingrich is always coming up with a new plan. He can drive you crazy with all the things he cooks up. And, can never enforce. But it's a cake topper to think Newt can sell "government streamlined to do solutions."

Nope. As DeLay said: The government IS the problem.

We also don't know how the Interent will track. At one time? If the news print people forgot about the story, it was dead.

In toay's environment? Heck, I gather news here, and at Drudge. And, I get a kick out of reading how others are taking all of this in.

What pleases me most of all?

Lots of conservatives are now aware that Bush was an expensive pick. That very likely anyone who'd just add "4 more years of the same ole, same ole," will die on the vine.

That there are about six contendahs vying for "who loves Jesus the most?" Dunno. But Guiliani is holding his own for a reason!

He's found the MAINSTREAM.

And, there are a lot of republicans who want to be in the majority, again. And, not kicked out with Bush, in 2008.

Are mistakes being made by politicians? Yes. As we speak.

Politics is still an art form. Not a science.

I think it's a compliment to ALL the current GOP condendahs, that they're interesting to listen to. That the debates have produced their moments of glory. And, yes, the GOP has RANGE! I don't knock this stuff! You bet, I'm glad Ron Paul is there!

Nobody will be able to say the GOP is as lackluster as the donks.

Now. What about a 3rd party run? Ralph Nader's been doing it. He never achieved Ross Perot's numbers. And, last time he didn't even get to 3%, which would have given him "matching funds."

The other thing to notice? Well, it's like horse racing. Usually there are at least half a dozen horses hurtling down the track. Was there a time only two horses competed? Wouldn't have been a place where you could raise lots of money!

And, all the money raised by the contestants, gets spent.

Probably some time after February 2008, we'll come to see things tightening. And, if the press lies? And, the polls lie? There's always the Internet. Deflates a lot of the marlarky.

As to what's still the most fluid? People won't get serious about picking until, oh, a year or so from now?

Ah. And, since Drudge said on Sunday he thought the immigration deal was gonna happen ... BECAUSE the politicians were saying "their phones stopped ringing." Seems that one was an obvious lie. Given how the legislation crashed and burned.

Oh. And, Chuck Hagel just picked up some PRIMARY competition for his race in '08. Who sez its just the GOP's competition to lose?

And, what wa with Trent Lott? Is he stupid, or something? Or did he owe McCain, BIG TIME? Remember that race for the senate's minority chair?

There's a real story. We just haven't been told.

Posted by Bithead | June 8, 2007 8:58 PM

I have to tell you, gang... McCain is a major threat to McCain… the single biggest threat, in fact. Thompson is simply being Conservative, which will invariably beat someone like McCain.

Think; Why'd Bush win in 2000 over McCain? Because as liberal as he gets, Bush was still a more reliably conservative choice than McCain.

So too, is Rudy Giuliani, who is a fair bit in front of McCain, numbers wise... though both will drop like meteors once Thompson enters the race... for the same reason... he's more conservative than either of them.

The lesson here is that, as I have said in these spaces many times previously, there is a genuine hunger for someone in the White House, and in Congress, who actually operates in the realm known as “right of center”. To the degree that Thompson qualifies, is precisely the degree to which he has gathered a following in this presidential race. Time, I think, has run out for Republicans in name only.
This is not a situation where, as John Dowd suggests in the Mosk article, the central issue is whether are not McCain’s campaign is being run well. The American people in general, and the Republican rank and file in particular, are not that stupid, so as to follow the best run campaign, IF the best run campaign doesn’t have any conservative substance to it. They have apparently decided (correctly, I think ) that McCain’s campaign does not in fact of the conservative substance to it. Indeed, it can be said that the reason McCain’s campaign is failing, is because it reflects the candidate too well. The McCain campaign doesn’t reflect any conservative substance, because McCain doesn’t have any himself.

Posted by Carol Herman | June 8, 2007 9:23 PM

I'm not predicting anything.

When you talk about the future, you might as well just flip a coin.

McCain's wounded. Yes. His wounds are self-inflicted. Since he was already carrying the baggage of McCain-Feingold; he really stepped in it with this Ted Kennedy/George Bush package. Showing that he was an insider with a tin ears. Not any better off than the president.

What's unknown to us? The "insider scoop" on how quickly Bush failed to convince Americans to hold onto Ted Kennedy's bill. He might as well have been selling tickets to Chapaquiddic.

That Guiliani stays on top? What impresses me is that there are a fair number of republicans who are very concerned about losing in 2008. Yup. November 2006 was some sort of wake up call.

And, there's no reason to go the route that guarantees the republicans won't find the mainstream voters.

Again, It was Ann Coulter's nasty remark about Fred Thompson "not being a serious conservative." But "just doing what he had to in order to get elected."

I thought that was a real clue. Not that anyone is gonna be voting for the guy that satisfies Ann Coulter the most. She doesn't own that kind of pull.

Guiliani's charm is that he's able to capture NON-PRIMARY voters. People who are telling the GOP insiders to "STICK WITH SOMEONE WHO CAN WIN."

This was just what Abraham Lincoln said, going into the convention in 1860. There were 3 others. And, each one of those guys had tried to tie up support, beforehand.

But when the convention votes were counted the front running could NOT get over the top!

When you have conventions like this. Ones that are not scripted. Where anything can happen. And, the first votes don't produce a "ticket." Then you get the stuff politics is famous for. DEALS. And, that's when a lot of party faithful understand what bad moves mean.

How so? If your party loses, YOU LOSE. There are lots of jobs attached to party politics; whether you see them. Or not. And, only by backing "the horse that can win," do you also get your ticket punched. And, you remain a player.

That some "talent" is now maneuvering? I'm not surprised. Take this Dowd fella. Backing George Allen did not put him into this presidential race. Allen was straight-jacketed by his handlers. He decided he'd smile like an idiot, and APPEAL. And, that by shaking hands, he'd win over Webb. Well, you could learn from how this played out, ya know?

More interesting still, nobody is going to Rove and asking him to send out "mailers." So? Bush has crashed and burned. He's taken Rove with him. Alas, not James Baker! James Baker LIES! So there's really hot issues out there that remain un-addressed.

But the Bush agenda is to mess up the Mideast even more so than he's already done. That's his promise to the Saud's.

Caroline Glick, over at the Jerusalem Post is up in arms about Olmert. Where she thinks he's about to give away the Golan. (I actually think that when it comes to using language to deceive, Olmert's as good as Baker! And, he knows history you don't know at all. Including that Arik Sharon, back during Bush #41's unfortunate 4-years; hated Baker's guts! So, when it comes to what I read? So far I don't see clues on outcomes. I just smell bullshit.)

While, yes. The Saud's have been given F-15's and F-16's. And, the day before Cheney arrived i Riyadh, Abdullah had a party at the point where these planes were on display. 150 miles from Eilat.

That's the stuff that's costly.

And, that's what the Iraqi's face as well. While DEBKA is reporting the Turks are still inside Iraq; beating up on the Kurds. And, we're not sending in jets. Bush is asleep at the switch. Beats me why this is so.

But since when is there anything honest coming from Bush?

We just gotta wait it out. And, see!

Posted by Karen [TypeKey Profile Page] | June 8, 2007 10:56 PM

Wow, people must be very afraid that Thompson can beat the dims because all of a sudden this place is crawling with his detractors.

I am even wondering what Dick Morris' agenda is because he is slamming Thompson at every opportunity.

I believe Fred can win and protect the conservative agenda in this very vitriolic environment. McCain has screwed the conservatives at every opportunity during this administration. Guiliani is great, but what will he sell down the river of the conservative agenda when in power when his only conservatism is a very strong defense stance? What price do we pay with him? Romney just won't get the job done in this polarized environment. If he wasn't from a liberal state and wasn't of a faith that obviously bothers some people, he might have a chance.

But this sudden run to drag Fred down a few pegs is very INTERESTING. He must truly be a threat to the front runners and the establishment.

Posted by Rose | June 9, 2007 3:35 AM

Hello, Carol.

Did you know? Most states have now moved their primaries up til AT LEAST February.

I don't think the CAMPAIGN SEASON should really be getting started until then - but they are all tired of New Hampshire and their attitude.

More states moved their primaries this last week.

People don't have a year to decide who their party candidate will be.

We have roughly 8 months, give or take.

Obviously, the biggest problem will be people who think they'll force others to violate their conscience to vote for some candidate in their own party, just so they can beat out the other party.

Unfortunately, people are in a very very ugly mood - they aren't going to be manipulated into violating their own conscience in order to support other people in their mad crushes.

They are in a mood to let the cookie crumble where it falls.

It ain't like we're voting between Frank Sinatra and Bing Crosby for favorite crooner.

Obviously, most of the GOP candidates don't have what it takes to win the GOP primary.

Half of them have what it takes to win the DIM Primary.

In most beauty pagents, half the girls could do the job beautifully, and there would be little overall difference as to which girl gets the title. Not that they do not matter - I've seen a large number of them make a strong difference to the special causes they care about - significant differences, too!

But they have all been groomed beautifully, and most of them have the character it takes to do the job well.

But our GOP Candidates aren't so well picked and groomed.

I think we put more into the beauty pagents, frankly.

It's going to be a very tough 6-8 months ahead for us.

But you are right about one thing - nobody can complain too much about the full range.

Well, the more conservative of the party can a bit - the Liberal end is very well represented, even though many of them are trying hard to pretend to be Conservative!

Posted by Rose | June 9, 2007 3:51 AM

But this sudden run to drag Fred down a few pegs is very INTERESTING. He must truly be a threat to the front runners and the establishment.

Posted by: Karen at June 8, 2007 10:56 PM


Sorry, Karen - if I am one who makes you feel this way about Fred, then you do not know where I am coming from.

I am from quite a bit RIGHT of Fred, and to me, he looks like McCain.

He doesn't look like he could beat the Dims to ME, because I won't vote for him.

I go back to talking my parents into voting for JFK because I thought Nixon looked too crooked in 1960.

But we were all Conservatives and Republicans then.

I did NOT vote for Gerald Ford, most of us didn't, because he pardoned Nixon without so much as a trial. That was dirty - and smeared us all.

HEALING, he called it! HAH!

We THOUGHT a FARMER OUTSIDE THE BELTWAY had to have some common sense, even if he WAS a DIM - we just didn't know!!!

Still, I don't have any reason to think Gerald Ford would have been any better - I cannot say I have any regrets.
That doesn't mean I do not despise Carter tremendously - it just means I don't think better of Ford.

I didn't vote for Robert Dole, who twisted Bush Sr. 's arm to sign the tax increases the night they were going down to pocket vetos - promising him he had deals with DIMS to slash other useless and dead programs to balance the deal - but instead he got out and yelled, "READ HIS LIPS, HE LIED!"

He is a dirty piece of manure, and I didn't vote for him.

I didn't vote for Perot - you could see what he was, unless you fooled yourself on purpose out of desperation over DOLE.
I didn't vote for Clinton, though. I voted a fourth option.

So when I tell you I will not vote for Fred, it means that millions of others who voted like I did in those races will vote the way I do in THIS race.

Fred called the charge of Perjury "TRIVIAL MATTERS", even though as a FORMER PROSECUTOR, he saw that deposition on INTERNATIONALLY AIRED TV.

I won't invest in THAT.

If he BEAT the Dims, what would you have? A DIM AT HEART!

You have still moved the nation PERCEPTIBLY LEFT - dangerously left for a ship of state already swamping and listing badly.

That is like, your ship has a lip above water about 15 feet, but you decide to roll it 20 feet more, and call that better than rolling it 50 feet.

So --- what.

Posted by syn | June 9, 2007 7:59 AM

Dearest Gaffo

Any party representing:

Government stay out of our bedrooms BUT give us free health care, free education, free art, cheap gas, an AIDS cure, a stem-cell cure-all for all disease, ban smokers, ban fat, ban hate, open borders, throw out the Christians, regulate nature, redefine the meaning of 'is', end the violence, stop all war and while you are at it feed clothe, house and provide health care for all the world's poor

is creepy collectivism creating a mass of serfs.

Thanks SwabJockey for the compliment...I am indeed Amazonian hot!

Posted by gaffo | June 9, 2007 9:57 AM

Half of those thigns are not good?

you oppose free health care? - ok, you can pay for yours if you insist - the rest of us will not.

you oppose free education? - ok again you can pay for it and we will get the free part.

you oppose stem-cell cure of all disease? what planet you live on there?

you oppose an end to War? again what universe do you live in where the above things are bad?????

---just what is the point of your pointless post anyway?

Posted by gaffo | June 9, 2007 10:05 AM

as for gas and serfs:

I think they aught to tax the shit out of gas - like they do in Europe. All those silly middle-aged single women driving SUVs would be gone and the roads would have more room for small cars to travel on.


what is an American Citizen when his worlds is under the influence of Global Corporations who have more power and money than entire Central American Nations. An economy where smaller business is swallowed by Glottonous international Corporation with zero National allegiences. Where the said Global corp has the power to userp the will of the American People simply by buying off the American Government!!

No Sir! Oh yes THERE IS A THREAT TO LIBERTY - but is not from the Federal Government - not anymore. The modern threat to Liberty is from the International Corps that are now more powerfull than many government and are in effect governments in their own right.

New era - new threat, I suggest you get out of the 19th century.

Posted by syn | June 9, 2007 11:01 AM

I live in the real world Gaffo not some imaginary utopia which was made up by creepy old lady Amy Goodmans of the world whose idea of Democracy Now is to insure equalized poverty and misery for all.

Well no thank you very much to that. I am a woman who believes in freedom of choosing my own health care, in providing for my own education, in my choosing items I wish to purchase with the hard earned money for which I labored and I would choose to purchase an SUV if I wanted however the NY city tax rate I pay prevents me from affording such freedom to choose purchasing an SUV.

Europe is economically flushing itself down the Collective toilet why would I choose to follow their example?

My point is that you are a slave to serfdom and you don't even know it.

Posted by g | June 9, 2007 8:52 PM

Amy Goodman? never heard of her.

not into rant radio - left nor right. they are all full of shit for those who can't think for themselves.

Democracy Now? heard of it. it is akin to Pacifica Radio Network (like in mind if not one and the same).

Not into Leftist Propaganda - even if you think I am. the fact that you think I'm a "Leftist" into propaganda like DN only shows how FAR FAR FAR to the RIGHT YOU ARE!!!!!!!.

nope. not into Pacifica radio thank you.

the old "choosing my own health care" crappolla rhetoric no longer works when the SAME PLAN consistently runs 17-percent MORE EACH YEAR!

maybe you are happy to pay 17-percent fucking more EACH YEAR for the SAME SERVICE THE YEAR BEFORE. - fine.


and sticking your head in the sand and saying "It's all good" WILL NO LONGER WORK Bubbess. But go ahead and try it!! PLEASE. I welcome the political party that will FIX THE PROBLEM (you know the one you are in denial about - health care costs))...........and that obvously seems to be the Democrats!!

Repulibicans=wigs.........a bunch of Ostriches.

hope you never get sick Ostrich!


BTW the only slaves to serfdom are the consumers who have forgotten how to be citizens.

now go buy that SUV and consume for all the Gluttonous Global Corps.

they need your $$$$$upport.

citizenship is for dreamers and so old school - now go consume consume CONSUME!!!!!!!!! like a good lemming!

Posted by Rose | June 10, 2007 1:54 AM

---just what is the point of your pointless post anyway?

Posted by: gaffo at June 9, 2007 9:57 AM


That you Liberals are living in a fantasy dream world that the rest of us didn't volunteer to pay for - your FREE health care IS NOT FREE. You are stealing from someone when your medical care is paid for by TAXES.

Yes, I said STEALING. It is THEFT!

I am not your slave. Get off my back.

Take your like-minded sock puppets and go to some island and DEMONSTRATE to us that YOU can make it work WITHOUT OUR FORCED AND INVOLUNTARY TAX DOLLARS.


And you cannot pass an AMENDMENT to the Constitution that will take it THROUGH DUE PROCESS!

And you know that and thus do not TRY!

I'm remembering the Great Liberal Biosphere Experiment of the 1990's.

Posted by Buzzy | June 10, 2007 2:29 AM

IMHO the process of running for President is amazing. The amount of management required, hiring a staff of people to make sure (hopefully) you present just the right stuff, the millions of dollars spent. Rudy, McCain, and Romney have had their eye on this job for years. Fred Thompson hasn't, he got talked into this within the last year. He just started taking donations within the last week or so.

John McCain sabotaged his own chances to be President...even long before the McCain Kennedy comprehensive immigration bill. That sure slammed the door shut hard though. I like John McCain but after his cancer surgery I noticed a change in him and that change took him to where he is now. I wouldn't vote for him but I like him.

One thing seems certain, the next Republican we nominate had better be able to not only reunite the GOP and pull us back from the brink but they had better to be able to draw everyone from even the moderate Democrats clear up to the Libertarians if they expect to win this thing. They'll have to be palatable enough to the GWOT crowd, the gun guys and gals, the law and order crowd (no reference to Fred) the pro life crowd, the Constitution crowd, the get out of Iran crowd, the stay in Iraq crowd, the global warming is real crowd and the global warming is BS crowd, the secure the border crowd, the deport the illegals crowd as well as the we need immigrant labor crowd. Oh and he can't be named Bush.

Some of the top canidates don't pass the smell test to me and others do. What is vitally important to you may not be the same for me.