June 18, 2007

Obama Recedes, Fred Surges

The new Gallup poll for the presidential campaigns shows the front-runners, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, still leading their respective races. The action takes place below as the contenders jockey for position -- and Obama has dropped off the pace just a little:

A USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted earlier this month found Clinton's chief rival, Sen. Barack Obama, pulling even with Clinton. However, in the current poll Obama has fallen back to a tie for second place with former Vice President Al Gore. At 21%, current support for Obama is near the low end of the support range seen for him since January, while Gore's 18% ties with an early March poll as his best result.

Former Sen. John Edwards, once tied with Gore for third place, has been stalled in the 11% to 12% range since May. The only other candidate earning the support of at least 5% of Democrats is New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

Even when the question is posed between Hillary and Obama, the Illinois Senator has lost ground. Since April, he had steadily increased his support against Hillary, peaking at the beginning of the month to come within the margin of error, 49-46. It marked the first time this year that Hillary didn't get a majority of voters in a head-to-head contest. However, Hillary has rebounded to a 53-42 gap, and Obama has more people questioning his credibility as a national candidate for the presidency.

The Republicans have a different story among their challengers. Rudy still leads, but he's now down to 28%. Gallup has joined the other pollsters in showing Fred Thompson at second place, nine points back in the overall race. Rudy does better head-to-head against Fred, 53-41, but that's a pretty impressive showing for a man who has not yet taken the wraps off of the campaign. McCain barely trails by a point for a third-place showing, and Mitt Romney still can't catch fire at 7%.

South Carolina could be a wild card for everyone, however. New state polling shows Fred and Obama ahead. Seven months out from the primary, Obama has a 34-25 lead over Hillary Clinton, whose Iowa woes don't look to get much improvement here. The bigger news is that Fred had leapfrogged everyone without spending a dime, leading Rudy 25-21. Even more surprising, John McCain has dropped to 7 percent, just two points above Mike Huckabee in a state that McCain figured to win.

It's still a wide-open race, but give Fred credit. If he can make this much of an impact on the race without spending any money, consider how he will do once his campaign gets its official start.


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Comments (17)

Posted by Karen | June 18, 2007 9:10 AM

I think Fred is worrying the libs. Notice they are running more negative articles about Fred? Don't worry Fred, you have a legion of supporters waiting in the wings. We will prevail and we will WIN.

Posted by Patrick | June 18, 2007 9:18 AM

I would say that Fred is gaining support because he's not actively campaigning (and debating) rather than in spite of it. All the main candidates find ways to make themselves look bad on a regular basis.
It's a twist on the Red Queen Effect, you have to stay where you are to move very fast.

Posted by Tom Shipley | June 18, 2007 9:45 AM

Thompson stands a chance in the primary if he chomps on a cigar and calls democrats crazy during primary debates.

It's done wonders for him so far.

Posted by Gary Gross | June 18, 2007 9:55 AM

This isn't good news for John McCain or Mitt Romney.

I think we have a two-tier top tier with Fred & Rudy the top tier & Mitt Romney occupying the bottom rung of the top tier.

Posted by Realist | June 18, 2007 10:19 AM

This is all irrelevant B.S. The Clintons own the Democratic party machinery. Hillary will be the nominee. A third-party or independent candidate (Bloomberg, McCain, or someone else) will arise spontaneously like Ross Perot in 1992 to split the anti-Hillary vote. (Surprise, surprise!)

Just shut up and say hello to President Hillary, peasants!

Posted by james23 | June 18, 2007 10:39 AM

I think its going to be Rudy v. the Hildebeast all the way to nomination, and then Rudy will mop the deck with the 'beast in the General--unless Bush keeps making everyone hate the GOP.

Where both Obama and Fred are concerned, I believe there is less 'there' than meets the eye.

Posted by Immolate | June 18, 2007 11:51 AM

Counteth thee not to two, excepting that thee first counteth to one, and then proceedeth to to three anon.

This translates into: never count Fred Thompson out! And Tom, I agree. That's a winning strategy.

Posted by The Mechanical Eye | June 18, 2007 12:12 PM

Thompson stands a chance in the primary if he chomps on a cigar and calls democrats crazy during primary debates.

isn't this depressingly shallow of us? That so many people are responding so enthusiastically to Thompson's image and (literally) his posturing? It's not as if the man paid his dues like Reagan did.

I think little of him right now. He won't be the nominee.


Posted by Immolate | June 18, 2007 12:29 PM

So Mechanical Eye, you're committing to the position that Obama and Edwards are not qualified to run for president. Can I get a confirmation that that is what you just said please?

Posted by Karen | June 18, 2007 12:46 PM

Just watch, people want to LIKE their president. They LIKED Clinton, as least those who drank the koolaid. I never respected him but did notice his charisma.

People HATE Hillary. She has such strong negatives that there are not enough stupid female "victims", including voter fraud, to overcome the base she will drive away from the dims. By contract, people will LIKE FRED.

I am not sure how likeable Rudy is. The only thing he is solid on is to protect us from crazy islamists. I am not sure he will help us in other ways. How was his spending in New York? I don't know. I like Fred first, but basically I am committed to helping anyone BUT Hillary win (however, if by some crazy chance McCain wins the nomination, I might stay home).

Posted by JD | June 18, 2007 1:27 PM


Same tactic was used in my state last year. An independent suddenly appeared. No chance of winning of course but he provided a place for disenchanted Republicans to vote rather than switch to the loathed Democrat.

I pragmatically supported Rudy as the least worst of options. Fred is interesting though, I simply don't have a firm opinion of him yet.

I've been a Republican my whole political life. I am dismayed though that the Democrat Party has not produced a candidate these last couple of generations that I would even vaguely consider voting for. Does the Democrat party truly need to continue it's current evolution? I truly believe such members as Tip O'Neel and Carl Albert would retch at what their party has become.

Posted by MarkD | June 18, 2007 2:12 PM


Do you believe Bloomberg is going to get Republican votes in states that are in play? The more likely scenario is that the Democrat with an R behind his name takes votes from people who like Hillary's positions but can't stand her.

Only in New York City could Bloomberg be called a Republican with a straight face. Look in the dictionary under RINO, you'll see Mayor Mike's picture.

Posted by Hollowpoint | June 18, 2007 3:25 PM

Only in New York City could Bloomberg be called a Republican with a straight face. Look in the dictionary under RINO, you'll see Mayor Mike's picture.

Posted by: MarkD at June 18, 2007 2:12 PM

True, you can find Bloomberg right next to Rudy's picture.

Posted by Project Vote Smart | June 18, 2007 5:17 PM

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Posted by robert | June 18, 2007 5:36 PM

Can't you righties see?? No one supporting the current Iraq policy (all Repubs except Ron Paul do) can win the presidency????

Posted by Monkei | June 18, 2007 8:05 PM

It's still a wide-open race, but give Fred credit. If he can make this much of an impact on the race without spending any money, consider how he will do once his campaign gets its official start.

Captain, let's also consider the kind of scrutiny he will come under when people actually start learning more about him. I can hardly wait for people to get a look at his wife! Let's see what he does when he HAS to actually get out there and campaign day in and day out! Rudy has already gone through that, like Hillary, you pretty much know what you are getting ... with FT all you know is he is probably better than anyone else running on the GOP side.

Posted by Karen | June 18, 2007 11:54 PM

What on earth does Fred Thompson's wife have to do wtih intelligent voter decision making? Criminy, if we were looking at spouses and their suitability, Hildabeast would get NO votes. Dayum people.!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think this is the liberal talking point theme this week. Call Fred Thompson a dirty old man because he has an attractive, middle aged wife. Snore.