Rasmussen: Likely Voters Likely To Oppose Immigration Compromise
As backers of the compromise immigration bill move to resuscitate it on the Senate floor, the American voter remains overwhelmingly opposed to it. In the latest Rasmussen poll conducted this weekend, only 22% of likely voters supported the bill, and a majority outright opposed it:
As the Senate prepares to resume debate the “comprehensive” immigration reform bill, the legislation continues to face broad public opposition. In fact, despite a massive White House effort, public opinion has barely moved since the public uproar stalled the bill just over two weeks ago.The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 22% of American voters currently favor the legislation. That’s down a point from 23% a couple of weeks ago and down from 26% when the debate in the Senate began. Fifty percent (50%) oppose the Senate bill while 28% are not sure.
It's bad news all the way around. A majority in both parties oppose the bill, and 48% of independents as well. Self-described liberals oppose it, 54%-32%. A plurality believe that no bill would be better than the current proposal, 45%-32%. A strong majority mistrusts the security triggers in the bill, with 71% of voters believing that it will require more legislation to secure the border and reduce illegal immigration.
In fact, those who believe that the bill will reduce illegal immigration are even fewer than supporters of the bill. Only 16% think this compromise will address the problem it purports to solve. Forty-one percent believe it will make illegal immigration worse than before. That means a quarter of the people who support the bill do so while believing it won't do anything to solve illegal immigration.
When we say that Congress lacks credibility, this is what we mean. When was the last time Congress worked so hard to pass legislation that so few supported, so many of which supported it because it won't work, and whose opponents hated it so badly? Certainly not within my memory.
UPDATE: A big welcome to readers of The Corner!
UPDATE: Rational liberal Ron Beasley at Middle Earth Journal wonders what happened to the supposed majority of moderates in the US electorate. They're there, Ron, but they don't like the bill either, because it won't work.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on June 25, 2007 3:55 PM | Comments (28) | TrackBacks (5)
Comments (28)
Posted by flenser | June 25, 2007 4:33 PM
The problem is that Congress responds to the big money donors, not to the voters. It's enough to make me think that we need public financing of elections and the elimination of all bribes, er, "donations" to politicians.
Posted by Ron C | June 25, 2007 4:42 PM
When was the last time Congress worked so hard to pass legislation that so few supported?
How about every week or two. Bad bills pass frequently - it's just that Americans don't take as close a look at every piece of enslaving legislation whizzing through the system as they have this one.
Posted by Jay | June 25, 2007 4:50 PM
We stand a good chance of killing this "No Illegal Alien Left Behind Act" but don't sit back yet.
Keep calling the paid lobbyists, I mean lawyers, I mean Senators and tell them politely but firmly,
- No on cloture
- No on this bill
- Enforce current laws
There is not dire emergency to grant legalization for illegals. The real emergency is stopping the flood of 3,000 illegals crossing our border each and every day.
Solution:
- Build the fence.
- Deport the worst of the worst - violent felon illegals.
- Then deport the identity thieves, car jackers, gang bangers, etc.
- Heavily fine firms that hire large numbers of illegals.
This will result in many illegals self-deporting and our illegal population will decline, wages will go up to attract Americans and legal immigrants to jobs and we will be on the road to recovery and the rule of law.
Posted by Jaded | June 25, 2007 4:52 PM
The people distrust them for the very reason that they are attempting to pass a bill with every thing they have knowing full well the American public is against it. They are what they appear to be thieves who are stealing the very heart and soul of America to big business.
Posted by Bill Faith | June 25, 2007 4:55 PM
And just why should our anointed elites listen to benighted riff-raff like us? Big business wants cheap labor and cheap labor they shall have!
The silver lining, to the extent there is any: They're giving FDT great campaign material: "It was a bad bill and I wish they hadn't passed it. Since they did, this country needs a Chief Executive who'll be vigorous about implementing the enforcement provisions it contains."
I added a link to my 2006.06.25 "No Illegal Left Behind" Roundup .
Posted by Philip | June 25, 2007 4:56 PM
If they vote yes on CLOTURE I will support every effort to replace all current office holders. I will not donate time, money or effort to any incumbent. I will support any effort to replace my congress people - I won't care what party the replacements come from. Once it is passed it will not matter what their politics are - the damage will have been done. Shove this down my throat and I will return the favor. Cross this line my friends and it is over. If this is the direction you choose for us to head we will not need a Republican President in 2008 - our path will have been decided.
I littered today. I'm gonna litter tomorrow. Gonna run some red lights too. Who gives a damn about laws? Laws are for losers. The way you win is you break them. I think I have finally broken the code. Can't wait to tell all the kids in my family that what I have been telling them is wrong. The new truth: Lie. Cheat. Steal. Break the law. Don't get caught. Nobody really cares. You win!! This is in fact what the United States Congress believes. Time to go with the winners. Go Congress!! H*ll Yeah!!!
Posted by Jaded | June 25, 2007 5:01 PM
A good talking point I have found when talking to my Senator's offices is "they do realize when they talk about illegals cleaning houses and mowing lawns that they sound like Plantation owners don't they" the Senator's staff are always shocked to hear it quite that way.
Posted by Rose | June 25, 2007 5:15 PM
The people distrust them for the very reason that they are attempting to pass a bill with every thing they have knowing full well the American public is against it. They are what they appear to be thieves who are stealing the very heart and soul of America to big business.
Posted by: Jaded at June 25, 2007 4:52 PM
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
SO VERY EXACTLY RIGHT!
And in the process, they are proving our Founding Fathers' INFALLIBLE WISDOM, once again, that the only correct repositors of power for a nation ARE THE CITIZENS AT LARGE, and NOT a small group of ANYBODIES, or any individual.
Thomas Jefferson once remarked that since the majority opposed a plan he had, it was obvious to him that HE was wrong, or EVERYONE would not be opposing him - and HE needed to rethink his idea and his position.
THESE DAYS, the politicians say they know they are doing something RIGHT if ALL THE PEOPLE OPPOSE THEM.
I'll take the FOUNDERS, ANY day.
Posted by RBMN | June 25, 2007 5:26 PM
As long as conservatives get all the "credit" for killing comprehensive immigration reform, I think most Democrats are probably willing to drop the whole matter and continue with the current mess as is. They'll say, "not our fault...we tried..." They'll just wait and put everything on the table again in two years.
Posted by Rose | June 25, 2007 5:40 PM
A good talking point I have found when talking to my Senator's offices is "they do realize when they talk about illegals cleaning houses and mowing lawns that they sound like Plantation owners don't they" the Senator's staff are always shocked to hear it quite that way.
Posted by: Jaded at June 25, 2007 5:01 PM
***************
Oh, I love it!
I hear that quite often with family and friends I talk with - but didn't realize so few were saying it directly to the politicians that it would shock THEM to hear it! hehehe
I just love it!
Obviously, they also haven't thought about what it will do when those illegals are "entitled" to regular wages, either!"
Posted by Roy E | June 25, 2007 6:02 PM
The US Senate is proving itself a master of making a bad situations even worse.
There is no excuse for their willful refusal to enforce existing law. Term Limits may be the only answer to this sort of arrogance.
Posted by geb4000 | June 25, 2007 6:22 PM
These reprobates feel that their jobs are not in jeopardy by voting for this POS. No senator has lost their job yet over immigration, so the slow learners feel no threat. Only when a few heads start rolling in the next election will these guys start responding. Until then, they will be sucking in the corporate money, and ignoring the voters.
Posted by Rose | June 25, 2007 6:26 PM
I littered today. I'm gonna litter tomorrow. Gonna run some red lights too. Who gives a damn about laws? Laws are for losers. The way you win is you break them. I think I have finally broken the code. Can't wait to tell all the kids in my family that what I have been telling them is wrong. The new truth: Lie. Cheat. Steal. Break the law. Don't get caught. Nobody really cares. You win!! This is in fact what the United States Congress believes. Time to go with the winners. Go Congress!! H*ll Yeah!!!
Posted by: Philip at June 25, 2007 4:56 PM
************************
Sad day in America when the SENATE and SUPREME COURT can convince the CONSERVATIVES that the best way to fight fire is WITH FIRE.
But when things get this bad, "FIRE" (not per se, but in-KIND fighting) IS ALL THAT IS LEFT.
That is why the Founders held the Boston Tea Party.
I fully agree with you.
Like the Ayatollah said, "THE SIDE THAT MEANS IT WINS."
We've been like the whiney moms, "Kids! I told you to stop that!" for 50 million times.
Posted by RBMN | June 25, 2007 6:47 PM
Re: Roy E at June 25, 2007 6:02 PM
It's not the Senate's job to enforce laws. And it's also not good time management for US Attorneys to go after dirty employers that can't be convicted, or fined, because the current law (that doesn't force employers to authenticate work documents) is unenforceable. You can't prove that someone not trained can spot forgeries. Not unless they confess, and they don't confess. Until something changes, the only thing raids accomplish is giving illegal workers some vacation time, before they come back under a different name.
As for what the bill supporters in the US Senate are thinking, I'd like to think they're pandering to me, because I want to see a good chuck of those 12-million, or 20-million illegals come forward and get photographed and fingerprinted. Not all will come forward, but I think most will. That's the trade--something we want for something they want.
Posted by Monkei | June 25, 2007 7:36 PM
Congress never responds (until they have no choice) to the public, they didn't during the Clinton impeachment, the Iraq war and now with immigration.
Congress doesn't care about the public, no matter what party you are in or follow, they are not there for us.
Posted by george | June 25, 2007 7:40 PM
Once the GOP helps enact this treacherous bill I predict they will see a debacle in 08 that will make 06 seem like the good old days.
Posted by M. A. George | June 25, 2007 8:04 PM
What can the Congress be thinking? Is their contempt for the American people stronger than their instinct for self-preservation? This may be the case. Nothing else seems to explain this refusal to either listen to us or rationally try to persuade us. It is good thing that they are still trying to push this bill though now, while the blogsphere and talk radio are keeping opposition hot. But I suspect that when the bill fails tomorrow, it will be with the preknowledge of Reid and others, who want the kudos of supporting it, but not the tremendous fallout if it were actually to pass. Slyboots, aren't they?
Posted by Ron Beasley | June 25, 2007 8:09 PM
While I still don't think there is that "silent majority" of moderates you are right - we can all agree, if for different reasons, that this is a bad bill. The truth is I couldn't resist the opportunity to take a cheap shot at David Broder.
Posted by Bob | June 25, 2007 8:34 PM
What can the Congress be thinking? Is their contempt for the American people stronger than their instinct for self-preservation?
******************************************
The answer is yes.
Which of our public servants said this:
"I've had my phones jammed for three weeks. Yesterday I had three people answering them continuously all day," XXX said last week. "To think that you're going to intimidate a senator or any senator into voting one way or the other by gorging your phones with phone calls — most of whom don't even know where XXXXX, is — is not an effective tactic. But it's their right to do that."
Talk about arrogance. Imagine, a US Senator actually listening to his constituency. The horror....the end of government......ahhhhh!
Posted by KendraWilder | June 25, 2007 10:30 PM
The Democrats have even more contempt for the American voter than does Trent Lott, apparently. As long as we're good little tax payers and leave important national business to the politicos, they love us. As long as we send more and more of our hard earned $10 & $25 political contributions, they adore us and pat us on the head like good widdle kiddies.
But the moment the American voter exhibits that they're well informed on any issue, they're a real and present danger.
Watch for a massive re-education campaign by the Democrats and Rinos to tramp down the will of the People, and endless guilt trips on every subject under the sun as well as "the sky is falling" scare tactics.....a la the 1960's and 1970's.
Heck, it worked once, why wouldn't it work again? Sadly for the DC Insiders, they haven't a clue yet that the world has changed for them as well as us, forever.
We now have the resources and the determination to be informed voters. And we have true "public watchdogs" now, in the form of the dedicated bloggers of the Conservative Blogosphere.
Posted by JD | June 25, 2007 10:38 PM
Both parties have failed and abused our trust. I will admit my biases in stating that the Democrat party has failed the greatest (and will continue to do so till it finds it's soul that it lost a generation ago) but the Republican party has also failed.
Options are slim. There is no viable third party to look to. Kindly don't bring up the Libertarians, a greater collection of unrealistic loons has never gathered in our history. We truly do need an actual, viable third party during times such as this. Sadly I don't see one forming in my lifetime.
Posted by Classical Liberal | June 26, 2007 12:03 AM
JD, because American political parties are so broad, a third party never works for long. Any successful or popular ideas are co-opted by one or both of the main two parties. That's why I recently changed my party affiliation from "Independent" to "Republican."
Sitting at home on election day does no good at all. The way to fight for what you want is from within.
Posted by Adjoran | June 26, 2007 1:10 AM
I am strongly FOR a comprehensive plan, because that is the only way to solve the problem, BUT this bill is hopelessly flawed.
RBMN ~ I'm with you on "employer sanctions." What an utter crock! The government can't enforce its own laws, with its virtually unlimited resources, so it expects businessmen to do it for them under threat of draconian punishment? It's positively Kafka-esque.
This bill isn't a total loss - it provides for ending endless family "chain" immigration in favor of a return to a merit-based system, which is good. It at least creates a minimal guest worker program, which is a step forward, and increases the number of available H-1B visas for immigrant workers with needed skills, another plus.
However, it fails completely on the probationary visas, issuing them UNLESS a background check disqualifies the applicant within 24 hours of submission. Heck, the government can't process passport applications within six weeks now, how are they going to do background checks overnight?
Why not make issuance of these visas conditional on PASSING the background check? Hello! Anybody home there?
No provision is made to differentiate between economic immigrants from Mexico and Central America and those from countries with known jihadist networks. No provision is made to track down those who merely overstay their student or tourist visas. Border fencing and enforcement is not adequately addressed.
The perfect should not be the enemy of the good, and I would not oppose an imperfect bill which addressed the real and growing problem. That does not describe the present monstrosity, though. Even CBO estimates that if fully implemented, the bill might reduce illegal immigration by 13%. Not good enough, Teddy!
Better no bill at all, suffering the ever-more critical situation a bit longer, than such a bad bill as we are being asked to swallow.
Posted by big G | June 26, 2007 5:22 AM
I received this reply from my Senator who bothered to reply to my negative comments:
Thank you for contacting my office regarding immigration. Our immigration system is broken and must be reformed. As the Ranking Member on the Senate Judiciary Committee in the 110 th Congress, I have worked tirelessly with my fellow Senators and both the Secretary of Commerce and the Secretary of Homeland Security to develop a "grand compromise" on the subject of comprehensive immigration reform. This compromise will ensure that our borders are secure while providing practical solutions regarding the millions of undocumented immigrants that already reside within the United States .
This legislation makes border security a top priority by providing for 18,000 border patrol agents and requiring 370 miles of new fencing along the border. It will also provide for the resources to detain up to 27,500 aliens per day on an annual basis, effectively ending the old "catch and release" program. Importantly, this bill requires that all of these "triggers" designed to secure our borders be implemented before we begin any other step in this comprehensive legislation. The legislation also mandates the development of an effective electronic employment verification system, which will ensure that employers are able to verify the legal status of those they consider hiring.
In addition to the strong approach this bill will take towards border security, it also includes a firm but reasonable approach towards those individuals who are here illegally. Currently, there are more than 12 million people living in the United States without proper documentation. This legislation requires undocumented immigrants to go on "probationary" status and to go through extensive background checks. Once an individual has passed the necessary security checks, paid substantial fines and demonstrated proficiency in English, the individual may "earn" a right to remain in the United States . In order for an individual to be eligible to earn the right, the individual must return to their home country and apply through a consulate or an embassy. By requiring immigrants to earn their right to permanent legal status, this bill provides a reasonable solution to the country's immigration problems that is both tough and fair.
It is also very important for our economy that we create an effective temporary worker program that allows an employer to find a temporary worker when no willing US worker can be found. Those desiring temporary employment in the United States would be issued a "Y" visa, which would be good for two years. The migrant worker would be required to return to his or her home country for a period of one year before they are allowed to return back to the United States .
Another important aspect of this bill is the creation of a merit based system for allocating green cards. This new system will focus on attracting the immigrants who will make the biggest contribution to our society. The system is designed to reward those who demonstrate a proficiency in English, have received higher forms of education and other training, and have employment opportunities in the United States . Not only will this practice strengthen the economy of the United States , but it will also end the practice of "chain migration," a practice that allows people to immigrate simply by virtue of being related to those who are already here legally.
Again, I thank you for contacting my office. Although the bill has suffered recent setbacks, I am pleased that leaders on both sides of the aisle are determined to produce a viable immigration bill. I believe we will return to this matter shortly and produce a comprehensive bill. I will keep in mind your input as we continue to debate immigration. If you have any additional questions on this or any other issue, please do not hesitate to contact my office or visit my website at www.specter.senate.gov .
Sincerely,
Arlen Specter
Posted by kiwikit | June 26, 2007 6:14 AM
Does anyone know what the polls were before the last amnesty travesty? I wasn't for it then and I'm vehemently against it now. Whom are these people who need us to vote for them think they're doing this for? There MUST be some under the table deal here because there's no rationality to it.
Posted by MarkW | June 26, 2007 8:53 AM
I think it has much to do with the fact that both sides think that they will be rewarded with votes from the Hispanic community in the future, if they pander enough to that community today.
Posted by nthompsonwhitehouse | June 26, 2007 3:00 PM
In response to your post on Rasmussen, I would like to point out the results of a few other polls on immigration.
First, although the poll you cite shows half (not a "majority outright" as you claim) oppose the bill, at least three different polling agencies show Americans strongly support giving most illegal immigrants the chance to get right with the law and earn a legal status. Those are CBS/New York Times (67%), FOX News/Opinion Dynamics (67%) and LA Times/Bloomberg (63%). Americans also support a guest worker program, another key element of the bill: CBS/New York Times (66%), ABC/Washington Post (53%).
Finally, this bill drastically increases fines against employers, and polling shows voters strongly support penalties against employers who knowingly hire illegal immigrants: LA Times/Bloomberg (77%), CBS/New York Times (75%).
Second, polling shows voters want something to be done on immigration and favor a comprehensive approach. Voter/Consumer Research shows a majority (55%) would prefer a bill that might not be exactly what they would like rather than passing no bill at all (38%). Also, LA Times/Bloomberg revealed that, while 40% favor an enforcement-only approach to immigration, a majority (55%) favor an approach including both tougher enforcement and a guest worker program- meaning they want a plan that secures the border AND deals with the current illegal population.
This is not to slight Rasmussen, but to only point out that a variety of other polls show voters want immigration reform and support key elements of the current bill.
Thank you for the opportunity to respond.
Nicholas Thompson
White House Office of Strategic Initiatives
Posted by patrick neid | June 26, 2007 4:21 PM
nicholas,
while its fun to cherry pick whatever poll favors one's position there is one poll that appears universal no matter how the question is asked.
the overwhelming majority of americans do not trust you, the white house or the congress to enforce the border. the administration you work for is a major impediment to securing our southern border. while you continue to jump up and down in your playpen the reality is you have wasted six years, allowing more than 5 million more illegals to simply stroll across the border. now, with only the hutzpuh a politician could summon, you want "comprehensive immigration reform". if the president had been serious about border security he would have enforced the laws already on the books--he chose not to. not even 9/11 could persuade him. case closed. this administration is not to be trusted on border security.
by using the polls above you continue to lie by telling half truths. true, americans want all of the above but only AFTER the border is secured. the bill before the senate, like all the prior going back to the 1960's, does not secure the border. build a fence first and then we'll talk about the amnesty bill george misspoke about today.