July 2, 2007

Obama Raises The Stakes

The presidential campaigns continue to release their second quarter numbers, but Barack Obama has put an exclamation point on Q2. His announced total, $31 million, exceeded expectations again, both in total and in organization, and the gap between himself and Hillary is even more significant than it looks. Their combined draw sends a big message to the GOP, too:

Sen. Barack Obama raised $31 million for his presidential primary campaign over the past three months, surging past Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's fundraising machine by nearly $10 million for the quarter to take the lead in contributions in the crowded Democratic field.

Obama became the first Democrat to surpass $30 million in a quarter during a non-election year, a feat his campaign said was accomplished not just with help from wealthy, traditional donors but also with a strong showing among small contributors.

The Illinois senator trails Clinton in most polls, but the favorable performance reported yesterday is expected to increase the pressure on Clinton's team. Obama was able to outrun Clinton, of New York, even after she began turning for fundraising help to her husband, Bill Clinton, the most prolific money-raiser in Democratic history. The former president will join his wife today in Iowa for their first high-profile joint campaign appearance.

Although thrilled by the financial performance, Obama's campaign yesterday sought to temper expectations with a note to supporters predicting that the candidate is unlikely to overtake Clinton in the polls before the Iowa caucuses early next year.

Obama also raised another $1.5 million for the general election, bringing his Q2 total to $32.5M. Hillary's total of $27 million includes $6 million for the general election, which brings her $10 million under Obama for the primaries. This seems very surprising; the Clinton machine has been considered one of the most formidable political organizations in the game. However, it looks like Obama's inexperienced team has equalled and beaten Clinton in two successive quarters, eating into her perceived invincibility.

Even that $10 million gap outpaces the rest of the field. John Edwards expects to limp into third place with $9 million, and even that thanks to a fundraising effort that relied on a last-minute assist from Ann Coulter. Bill Richardson will bring in $7 million. Chris Dodd, who has made almost no noise in this race, will have a little over $3 million. Put together, these three fall short of Hillary, and it has begun to look like a two-person race for the Democrats.

These numbers look bad for the GOP. Mitt Romney's campaign has already indicated that it won't meet its Q1 total, a certainty since Romney has had to loan the campaign his own money. The top three or four Republicans will probably not combine to have the numbers of Hillary and Obama, which may mean a tough campaign in the general election. If Hillary wins the nomination, however, she may already have maxed out some of her contributors early, a potential weak spot for the Democrats after the primaries.

Given Obama's ability to raise money, Hillary has to think that both of them will be on the ticket in November. If Obama can find a quarter-million new donors and beat her organization so handily, she can't afford to leave him off the ticket if she wins the nomination -- and the same can be said for Obama if he manages to pull the upset in the primaries. His Q2 performance proved that his Q1 numbers were no fluke, which raises the stakes for the Democrats in this race.


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Comments (13)

Posted by rbj | July 2, 2007 7:36 AM

"John Edwards expects to limp into third place with $9 million, and even that thanks to a fundraising effort that relied on a last-minute assist from Ann Coulter"

Ann Coulter helping John Edwards?! Could you please explain a bit more, Captain? I realize I haven't been paying too close attention to the fundraising but this should have been bigger news.


Posted by Monkei | July 2, 2007 8:15 AM

After hearing the vile Ann speak, people have flocked to the Edwards campaign to donate money. I would say they are both benefiting from this exchange but not sure it is helping Mr. Ann with anyone else except those who want to agree with his Hillary's chubby legs. Afterall, it's about the only statement he makes that is true.

Posted by Angry Dumbo | July 2, 2007 8:45 AM

Clinton-Obama ticket. Sounds like a plan. Obama repackages Hillary beautifully. Like Gore was to Clinton 1.0, Obama is to Clinton 2.0 makes sense. Obama is the prettiest girl to ask to the dance.

Good catch, Captain. I think that a merger would make good sense. If Republicans can't catch either one candidate in fund raising in the primaries, they certainly won't match the two combined in a general.

Posted by Red Wolverine | July 2, 2007 9:04 AM

this is still way too early and elections are won at the grass roots level. Remember Bush's army of 2.3 million volunteers?

Obama is still a lightweight and Clinton is gonna roll him.


Posted by Labamigo | July 2, 2007 9:15 AM

America will never elect Hillary Clinton president. Obama does not bring anything to a ticket headed by Clinton. Exactly what votes will that bring them that either would not have captured on their own?

I dont see BO giving up a high profile Senate seaat for perhaps 8 years in obscurity as Hillary's second in line. We all know Bill will be her vice president.

Posted by rbj | July 2, 2007 9:55 AM

Monkei -- I don't care much for Coulter, but that's not going to send me in the opposite direction and donate to someone like Edwards: bad policies & lack of experience.

Posted by swabjockey05 | July 2, 2007 10:17 AM


I believe the good Captain is referring to all the "sympathy support" the Shyster got when she called him a faggot.

Will the Repubs be able to collect enough cash? Unless something changes in the next year or so...they ain't getting anything from this swabbie.

Posted by Lightwave | July 2, 2007 10:28 AM

The ticket has been Hillary/Obama since the 06 elections, the only issue at this point is when Al Gore will wander into the race and cause a civil war.

As more and more evidence piles up that the only man-made global warming is coming out of Gore's mouth, it'll be interesting to see how big the backlash is going to be when people see the price tag for what Gore's proposing sets in, along with HillaryCare, ObamaCare, etc.

I don't think Americans are going to be very happy when they see the Dems solution to the problem is a staggering tax burden and trillions more in spending that will crush the economy, but the Secular Church of Global Warming will lead its converts to maybe form a third party or something.

You thought *Nader* split the Dem vote. Wait until Al tries to run.

Posted by Dub Dublin | July 2, 2007 10:39 AM

It looks bad for the GOP for two very simple reasons, : 1) The GOP has failed to deliver a conservative candidate, since the GOP is now totally controlled by its liberal wing, and 2) because of this it has also conspired with the MSM to ensure only leftist Republicans can be considered serious candidates.

I detest the liberal Dems and what they're trying to do to our country, but I now detest the GOP only slightly less. If there were a true Conservative party, I'd leave the GOP in a heartbeat, and never look back. Most conservatives (myself included) will NOT vote for McCain or Giuliani - we'll stay home first.

Romney's arguably a closet liberal, but has the advantage of being generally level-headed and a pragmatic, proven effective executive leader. Fred isn't really a true conservative either, and I have serious doubts about his ability to actually be a good president. I like Huckabee, but again, the GOP/MSM cabal has placed him outside consideration, despite excellent debate performances that should have him in the hunt. The GOP has only itself to blame, and I'm not particularly interested in helping them out of the mess they're in.

Posted by InlandEmpire | July 2, 2007 11:03 AM

Hi all--

A Democrat president will benefit the War on Terror, especially if they maintain their current tenuous hold on Congress. With the Donks in power they will unequivocally be forced to own the problem instead of carping from the sidelines. President Hilary will not be able to bite her lip and say "I feel your pain" should Al Quaida pull off a "dirty bomb" or some other weapon of mass destruction: the public will demand action.

I am not as pessimistic overall as I was a year or two ago. We are a very large, very wealthy and incredibly hard working country. If one or two cites suffer serious attacks we will have the resources to rebuild better and prevail. Our failures are failures of will, abetted by relentless attacks from the Democrat party for political advantage. Again, with Hilary in office and a Democrat Congress, it becomes their problem.

InlandEmpire out

Posted by swabjockey05 | July 2, 2007 12:17 PM

I. Empire,

I've made a similar point before...if but for a few "chads" in FL....we'd be "winning" the Democrat-led war right now instead of "loosing" it like we are under the Repubs.... The MSM would have been trumpeting the successes of the Democratic War on Terror in both Afghanistan and Iraq. All the news would have been favorable and the Donks would be in the WH for the foreseeable future.

The problem with your suggestion is that if the Hildabeast does win...and the Dhimmis maintain majority...we will not see one of our cities are scorched immediately. Why would the Lunatics attack us when the Dhimmis will be surrendering whatever they can to placate them…The Lunatics will win many accolades…and have wheel barrows (or refrigerators) full of money thrown their way. They’ll have plenty of time to rebuild and plan their attacks against the Great Satin.

Posted by Nedra Lee | July 2, 2007 12:21 PM

Dub Dublin,

Where is Fred Thompson in your "take" on the GOP? He is as Conservative as anyone you'd care to name. You've totally figured him as not being relevent?? Shame, shame.


Posted by Artie | July 3, 2007 7:56 AM

Just a comment on Hillary. There are a couple of bright spots.
One, no senator has been elected president since St John the Divine in 1960.

And, two, Bill is campaigning for her. Everyone he campaigned for lost.

There is hope.