Pervez Goes North
Pervez Musharraf has sent his army north towards the frontier, apparently modifying a truce he made with the radical Islamists controlling the region. The agreement appears to be over as groups in Waziristan began calling for jihad against Musharraf after the siege and capture of the Red Mosque:
Thousands of troops were deployed to Pakistan's northwestern frontier to try to dissuade outlawed Islamic militants from launching a holy war against the government for its bloody attack on a radical mosque, military officials said Saturday.As the troop movements proceeded in at least five areas of the North West Frontier Province, a suicide bomber struck in another region of the border, his explosives-laden vehicle killing at least eight soldiers in a military convoy, army spokesman Maj. Gen. Waheed Arhad said. ...
"With help from local tribal elders, we are trying to ensure that militants lay down their arms, and stop issuing calls for jihad against the government," said a senior military official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.
He said there were no immediate plans for combat operations against Maulana Fazlullah, a radical cleric who has pressed for the imposition of Taliban-style rule in Pakistan, much like the leaders of the Red Mosque.
Fazlullah had earlier agreed not to make statements over the FM radio station he controls that called for action against the government. Fazlullah broke that agreement after the Red Mosque siege, telling his followers to prepare for jihad against Musharraf. Instead, Musharraf has apparently prepared for Fazlullah's jihad. They may not have immediate plans to confront Fazlullah, but it doesn't take thousands of troops to revoke a broadcast license, either.
The army has not made its way to North Waziristan, but that seems to just be a matter of time. Tribes in that region demanded an end to military checkpoints there in a case of poor timing. Their spokesman says the checkpoints violate the agreement with Musharraf, but Musharraf apparently feels differently now then he did in 2005. It's hard to believe that Musharraf will dismantle checkpoints in that region now; it's far more likely that he'll reinforce them with at least some of the troops on the move now.
He may not bother to attack the tribes with this movement. It may just be a way to seal off the frontier in preparation for a NATO attack on Taliban positions. Musharraf has reportedly agreed to allow Western forces to cross the border, and if they do, Musharraf will want to make sure that the radicals can't flee further into Pakistan. If they keep going towards Waziristan, that possibility will get a lot more likely.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on July 14, 2007 5:02 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBacks (0)
Comments (9)
Posted by Cybrludite![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/nav-commenters.gif)
| July 14, 2007 6:12 AM
They may not have immediate plans to confront Fazlullah, but it doesn't take thousands of troops to revoke a broadcast license, either.
Of course if the transmitter is in Waziristan, revoking the license from an office in Islamabad won't really accomplish much...
Posted by ligneus | July 14, 2007 6:46 AM
Of course if the transmitter is in Waziristan, revoking the license from an office in Islamabad won't really accomplish much...
I heard that the office in Islamabad has a Cruise missile launching pad on the roof....
Posted by Rick Moran | July 14, 2007 11:28 AM
What an incredibly dangerous policy Musharraf is following by allowing NATO troops onto Pakistani soil.
His desperation must be worse than we thought. He risks losing the support of the army if NATO makes too big a footrprint in those regions. My guess is that French and American special forces will do most of the fighting for that reason.
Posted by La Mano | July 14, 2007 11:40 AM
The swamp in western Pakistan needs to be drained.
Posted by Noocyte | July 14, 2007 12:02 PM
Hmmm...it appears that something has put a caution in old General Pervez. Yes, it is extraordinarily dangerous for him to go "all-in" like this. I can only speculate that he has come to perceive a greater risk if he does not (the timing with those fragments of Intel about AQ's partially reconstituted capabilities makes me wonder about any pressures which may have been put on him from way behind the scenes. We *have* been sharing a good deal of nuclear expertise and material with India of late...).
And that could very well spell very good news for us, and singularly bad news for AQ.
Posted by Adjoran | July 14, 2007 2:53 PM
Musharraf has been performing a delicate balancing act for years. He has to keep the radical fundamentalists at bay, but they had infiltrated the ISA (intel service) long ago, and aren't just in the tribal regions and slums any more. Pakistan is a traditional democracy, so he must allow enough power to be wielded by parliament to keep pressure off of his "dictatorship," such as it is. All the while, he must be tough enough against the radicals to satisfy the Army, which put him in power and could take him out.
It is his fear of losing support in the Army that has kept him at least verbally opposed to NATO incursions, although he would most certainly privately welcome the results of any successful raid.
Now, the radicals have raised the stakes by starting direct confrontation with the regime in the cities. Musharraf has no choice but to answer this with a firm and resolute hand. If we have learned no other lesson about the jihadist radicals over the last three decades, it is that ignoring or appeasing them only allows them to get stronger before they strike.
Posted by KW64 | July 14, 2007 3:54 PM
It is not just the Red Mosque that may motivate him. There was another recent assasination attempt against him. Where did that come from. I suspect that part of the Waziristan live and let live deal involved-- well -- letting Mussarraf live. Did somebody reneg on the deal?
Posted by patrick neid | July 14, 2007 6:21 PM
Musharraf has only two choices, the same two choices he's had since his takeover--kill the radicals, including the ones in his government or be killed. all he has been doing is dealing with fate's time schedule while dodging bullets.
for us, all we can hope for is that he gets about it now.
the next big problem for everyone is going to be the central asian republics where the survivors will next flee if musharraf finally pulls the trigger.
Posted by Joe Doe | July 14, 2007 7:00 PM
I remember Musharraf on 9/11 (very late afternoon) on CTV – expressing his condolences in English, really articulate and sounding abstemious ; way earlier same fateful afternoon around 4PM, the Canadian PM (Chretien) munching something in French almost incapable of stopping his smile.
Sometimes, you never know where your friends are. So many DVRs, so little time for replays, so short attention span.