August 17, 2007

US, UK Want Benazir Back

The US and UK have pressured Pervez Musharraf to form a political alliance with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in order to create an anti-extremist political front. However, Musharraf has had trouble finding common ground, and Bhutto herself is not keen on pulling Musharraf's bacon from the fire:

America and Britain are seeking to broker a power-sharing deal between Pakistan's president, Gen Pervez Musharraf, and the exiled former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto.

A senior Western diplomat said that the two nations were exerting pressure on Gen Musharraf to broaden his political base by bringing Ms Bhutto into his -government.

They are anxious to ensure that the general, a key ally in the US-led war on terror, retains his hold on power after the worst political crisis of his eight-year rule.

Last week Gen Musharraf, who has clashed with Pakistan's supreme court over plans to stand for re-election while remaining head of the army, contemplated imposing a state of emergency which would have given him sweeping powers.

The reason for the concern is obvious. After Musharraf's ill-fated attempt to remove a judge from the bench, he has few friends left among the moderates. The truce he signed to appease the radical Islamists resulted in the usual outcome of appeasement -- attacks and escalating demands for power. He now has to call the military into action against the jihadists with whom they used to work, and the military may not respond.

Musharraf has a choice between realigning with the radicals or reaching out to the moderates, represented by Bhutto. He has no great desire to bring Bhutto back into Pakistan; he does not want to share power at all. He may have little choice now, but he wants to get the best deal possible if he can't avoid it. Bhutto has tired of waiting for Musharraf to figure out whether he wants to be president or in charge of the military, but Bhutto is not about to endorse him as both by signing an agreement with him under those conditions.

In the meantime, the UK and especially the US want something done about Waziristan. They especially want to ensure the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. They've watched as Musharraf has blundered his way to being within a hair of losing his grip on power, and unless the moderates get back into Pakistani politics, the only people close enough to grab power are precisely the people we least want to see wield it.

Musharraf had better cut a deal fast. The US and UK had better make every effort to expedite it.

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Comments (2)

Posted by docjim505 | August 17, 2007 5:51 AM

Perhaps I'm reaching a bit here, but this phrase caught my eye:

Last week Gen Musharraf, who has clashed with Pakistan's supreme court over plans to stand for re-election while remaining head of the army, contemplated imposing a state of emergency which would have given him sweeping powers. [emphasis mine - dj505]

I seem to recall the good Cap'n blogging about this, and the upshot was that Musharraf was urged to declare a state of emergency by some of his supporters but decided not to do it.

Is Wilkinson trying to imply that Mushie is a wannabe tyrant ("He's just itching to declare a state of emergency so he can stay in power forever!"), or is this just a somewhat poor choice of words? What if he wrote:

Last week Gen Musharraf, who has clashed with Pakistan's supreme court over plans to stand for re-election while remaining head of the army, last week rejected calls for imposing a state of emergency which would have given him sweeping powers.

See the difference?

Now, as for the US / UK pressuring Mushie to bring back Bhutto... I'm ALWAYS a little suspicious when the folks at Foggy Bottom start trying to meddle in another country's internal affairs; it usually winds up being a poisonous brew of cynical realpolitik and wishful thinking. I don't know much about Pakistani politics, but the article makes clear two things:

1. Bhutto was thrown out of office amidst accusations of corruption, which, if true, make one wonder why the Pakistanis would want her back, and;

2. Bhutto and Mushie hate each other. Why on earth do we think they'll work together?

Maybe this is a good idea, but I have my doubts.

Posted by jeanneB | August 17, 2007 6:56 AM

Funny that it took so long. These are supposed to be the people who are ever-vigilant against the "slippery slope".

One might think they 'd have learned something after their decades-long embrace of communism, [mis]led by Duranty's benign depiction of Stalin's glorious revolution. Or they might have recalled their faith in North Vietnamese benevolence after U.S. departure from Vietnam. It's depressing that there are sooooo many examples.

Once again, they ignore the warning signs in Venezuela just because they sooooo want this, finally!, to be the case where "the people" win.

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