August 20, 2007

Romney Bumps And Grinds

Gallup shows that Mitt Romney got a pleasant surprise from his efforts at the Ames, Iowa straw poll. He jumped from his consistent 8% national polling to 14%, putting him past John McCain and close to Fred Thompson, moving to a solid third-place finish:

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has posted modest gains over the last two weeks, both in his favorable rating and in his positioning in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. One presumption is that Romney's gains reflect the visibility that followed his win in the Iowa Republican Party straw poll last weekend, although data in the new Gallup Poll show that only a third of Republicans nationwide are directly aware that Romney won this unofficial contest.

Romney now receives 14% of Republicans' votes when they are asked whom they would like as their party's presidential nominee, up from 8% in each of the two previous Gallup Polls conducted in July and early August. Romney's current positioning puts him slightly behind front-runner Rudy Giuliani and unannounced candidate Fred Thompson, but slightly ahead of John McCain, who slips to 11% in this poll.

Gallup actually has had the most stable polling of the major services for the Republican candidates. For the past two months, almost no change has been seen in anyone's numbers. The only changes outside of the margin of error for the first four candidates has been Romney's six point gain and McCain's five-point loss in this latest poll. McCain has drifted downward from 20 in June to 11 now, but until this last poll, no one seemed to be absorbing McCain's discards.

Mike Huckabee did not fare quite as well. His surprisingly strong second place finish only got him a bump of two percentage points nationally. It moved him to the top of the second tier, but it doesn't move him to the bottom of the first tier, at least not yet. Huckabee may have more work to do before he can claim a big move, but at least people will know who he is at the next debate.

Rasmussen has similar numbers as Gallup. The daily trends show Romney losing a little bit of steam as a week passed after Ames, declining slightly from a midweek high of 16% to 13%. Both polls show Rudy Giuliani firmly in front at 29%, and Fred Thompson trailing at 22%, although Rasmussen shows Rudy trending slightly upwards since Ames as well. His 29% is his best showing in over a month at Rasmussen.

Romney had a good week after Ames, but he will need to start grinding out some territory for himself, and soon. Fred's entry into the race next week will take some of the oxygen away from the other campaigns in the media. If Romney wants to get out from behind, he'd better hope that Fred blows it or that he has some way of capturing the attention of the nation's voters.


TrackBack URL for this entry:

Comments (13)

Posted by se7en | August 20, 2007 12:02 PM

Although many want to call Ames meaningless, it does tell a few tales. It's about expectations and momentum. We can't attribute Romney's Gallup rise only to Ames, but it certainly helped.

I see Romney only rising in the polls. As more and more people get to know him, they will like him.

Posted by firedup | August 20, 2007 12:05 PM

Captain, your catty digs at Romney are hilarious. I really believe some men can't get behind his candidacy because jealous of his looks.

Posted by Honky | August 20, 2007 12:09 PM

Fred's entering next week? I thought it was in two weeks.

Posted by Captain Ed | August 20, 2007 12:15 PM

Hey, it's difficult to come up with post titles! ;-)

I actually like Romney as a candidate -- he's sharp and knowledgable, and very positive on the stump.

Posted by kingronjo | August 20, 2007 12:35 PM

I am a supporter of Rudy. My caveat.

With that said, Mitt Romney will never, repeat never, be the Republican candidate for POTUS, Not cuz I dont like him or know something about him or hes a Mormon. But because he was the Gov of Massachussetts. I have taken bets on this and look forward to a few nice meals.

Has anyone else noticed that McCain really does not want to win the nomination? Really, as in no doubts. His latest complimenting of Hillary is making the Repub nomination more and more Rudy v. Fred (assuming he wnats to get into it). Sen McCain if you ever read this, why? I can guarantee you Hillary will shred you. Yes you are better than her, but it doesnt matter anymore. Your maverick streak is old.

Posted by filistro | August 20, 2007 12:37 PM

Captain, I think your post titles are always informative, usually pithy, often witty, and sometimes LOL hilarious.

The double entendre in this one is particularly delightful. You are a genuine wordsmith.

Posted by nate | August 20, 2007 1:19 PM

I'd rather be at 13-16% moving up than 30% and slipping. I'd also rather have Iowa and NH in the bag than California and New York.

It still amazes me to look at the 2004 Dem race. Rudy has the same trend as Joe did.

Posted by Angry Dumbo | August 20, 2007 4:10 PM

Fred's entry into the race, this late in the game signals that many social conservatives, myself included, will not sign off on Rudy. Rudy may still seal the deal, but now he is going to have to battle both Mitt and Fred with more than his "we have to stay on offense" schtick. Game on.

Posted by dhunter | August 20, 2007 4:42 PM

Rudy backed out of IA because he knew he couldn't win it.
Did the same happen in New York senate race?
Don't his personal affairs kind of play into the hands of the stand by her man, Hitlery? She is great at playing the victim.
I will vote for the Republican nominee no matter who it is but wonder if Mitt/ Rudy wouldn't be a better ticket than any other.
Mitt has a message that's tough to beat.
IA straw poll numbers were down as this year only Iowans were allowed to vote, something I bet you didn't hear from the MSM ,only that the numbers were down.
Both Mitt and Rudy have attractive track records, Mitt never took a salary as Governor? Wonder how that message plays compared to the Reids, Feinsteins, Murthas, Clintoons and other assorted thieves in the Dem party?

Posted by MJ | August 20, 2007 5:04 PM

Romney not only got bumps in the national polls, but in key states as well. Yes he's got a good lead in IA and NH, but SC has been tough for him. He saw a big bump in one poll last week there. In a California poll he saw a good rise there and has a big jump in the Nevada poll. It will only continue to get interesting to see if he can maintain these and keep the momentum going. Also with Michigan entering the picture he has a good chance of doing well there. The favorability rating is also a good sign, as it shows those that have heard him like him.

It will be interesting to see how Fred comes in and on what magic carpet he rides on. He'll most likely get a bump as well...But I really have a hard time respecting someone coming in so late in the game with little substance, a vanilla senate record, and a reputation of being lazy...that is only reaffirmed by getting in this late. At least Mitt and Rudy act like they really want the nomination and are out there meeting people and answering their questions, and going through the debate process. Not saying it's not prudent politically for it might be...but I guess I'm old fashioned and think that hard work should account for something.

Posted by Rose | August 20, 2007 11:51 PM

Mitt can do all the carving he wants to - he is a Massachusetts politician.
I ain't interested, and I am not personally acquainted with any supporter of his.

Fred - people who promote perjury by high-ranking political figures as a "TRIVIAL MATTER" just aren't going to get very deep traction from folks who are fed up with child molesters flooding our streets and the 9th Circus and half the SUpreme Court making average, law-abiding citizens pay the freight for all the criminal activity they can promote.

Those who want the GOP to beat out the DIMS need to get REAL about he need to promote at least ONE candidate with higher moral values than the average DIM, and even though Huckabee is famous as a "CHRISTIAN", his promotion of illegal immigration shamnesty is not endearing him to me, at all.

I will vote for a good man, both in the Primary, and in the General Election, even if a good man isn't on the GOP ticket in the General Election - I'll have to do a write-in, I guess.

One man in the Bible who is famous for supporting a man for King who was not a good man was Nabal. He stood for the bad king against the man who had been anointed by God to replace him, and two weeks later the man died, by the hand of NO MAN - his name became defined "FOOL", and his wife and property went to the NEW KING.

Posted by Rose | August 21, 2007 12:10 AM

Captain, your catty digs at Romney are hilarious. I really believe some men can't get behind his candidacy because jealous of his looks.

Posted by: firedup at August 20, 2007 12:05 PM

I'm a lady, and Romney's looks don't impress me FOR him, one single iota.

In fact, every time I look at Romney, I see Toady Chappaquiddick's SHADOW looming large all over him.
I wouldn't trust Romney as far as I can throw the Kennedy Machine.
I've lived under a fraudulent Dim machine several different times. The kind where the local cemetary votes DEMOCRAT, and some local feeble and elderly receive "voter instruction tutoring" in the privacy of their own home in the middle of the night in the weeks before an election.
You won't find Judge Archer Parr from South Texas on the internet.

And for Romney to thrive under one of the nation's most powerful doesn't matter to me if I can "put my finger" on precisely what it is about Romney that bothers me - but THAT is enough.
And it is for a lot of Texas voters, whose memories of the Texas Dim party have not yet begun to fade.

Makes my lip curl just to remember - and that isn't at all in an "Elvis" way! I gawr-own-TEE!

Posted by Rose | August 21, 2007 12:15 AM

Sen McCain if you ever read this, why? I can guarantee you Hillary will shred you. Yes you are better than her, but it doesnt matter anymore. Your maverick streak is old.

Posted by: kingronjo at August 20, 2007 12:35 PM

No, McCain isn't better than Hillary.

That is why the GOP has an excellent chance of losing this election by insisting on promoting RINOS, when the GOP base is screaming for a Conservative of HONEST INTEGRITY.

That "MAVERICK" streak is just plain ordinary SOCIALISM busting out at EVERY opportunity - opportune or not!

Post a comment