A Slow Start?
The Los Angeles Times takes a look at Fred Thompson's fundraising in the third quarter -- a period of time in which he was an official candidate for 24 days -- and declares him "behind". Instead of looking at a fundraising rate that seems fairly impressive, Dan Morain makes the trenchant analysis that the candidate who just joined the race last month finds himself behind other candidates who have raised money for their third straight quarter:
In an indication that his presidential campaign is off to a slow start financially, Republican Fred Thompson raised $8 million in the third quarter of 2007, which included his first month as a declared candidate.Combined with the money he raised while he considered joining the race, Thompson has gathered $11.5 million for the year, putting him a distant fourth in the GOP money race behind Mitt Romney, Rudolph W. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain.
"It is not a number that is going to make Republican activists say, 'Wow,' " said Claremont McKenna College political scientist John J. Pitney Jr. "It is a defensible number, but not an impressive one."
Since Thompson formally entered the race a month ago, he has raised $5 million, or about $200,000 a day.
It would be difficult to find a more asinine analysis of fundraising. Fred Thompson's fundraising since his announcement came to $200K per day. Extrapolated over a full quarter (90 days), that comes to $18 million -- a fundraising rate that would certainly be very impressive indeed. He also added 70,000 donors, a very substantial indication of a broad reach in the electorate.
Will any other GOP candidate, having been in for a full quarter, reach that number in Q3? It's doubtful. In fact, the only candidates to approach that number in any quarter were Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, and in Q2 Mitt had to loan himself six million dollars to surpass it. Mitt has had the best fundraising numbers altogether, but we have yet to see the Q3 figures.
It looks like everyone else has slowed down. Barack Obama's fundraising total came in at a health $20 million, but that's a decline from $32.5 million in Q2. He found another 93,000 donors, bringing him over 350,000 -- but his Q3 numbers are only 20% more than Thompson's, and Obama had the full quarter. Senior aides to Hillary Clinton predicted her totals to run in the same general area as Obama.
Meanwhile, John McCain raised $5 million in Q3, but Ron Paul reportedly raised $3 million in the same period. McCain's totals show that his reorganization worked, but it still represents a figure lower than John Edwards, who had to commit to public financing to keep his campaign afloat. Paul's numbers show that he has continued to refine his on-line draw, and at this stage, analysts can't dismiss the support that he receives. It hasn't translated to polling, but it shows that he won't get pushed off the debate stage any time soon.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on October 2, 2007 4:40 AM | Comments (9) | TrackBacks (2)
Comments (9)
Posted by burt | October 2, 2007 5:46 AM
Some of the other candidates have peaked because they have a substantial number of donors who have already given the maximum allowed, $2,300.
Posted by Terrye | October 2, 2007 6:05 AM
It is still really early. In fact it is not even 2008 yet.
Posted by dhunter | October 2, 2007 6:25 AM
Hillarys' illicit and illegal fund raising marches on unabated and unquestioned by either the MSM or major Republican candidates.
Does anyone else want to be POTUS or are they just there as a sideshow to the Clintoon corruption?
Even The Nation questions her methods and Republican candidates won't.
My money and vote stays in my pocket till I see some Cajones, seems Hillary's are showing at this point and no others.
SICK! Gentlemen find your balls or are you too hanging out in airport stalls?
Posted by Angus | October 2, 2007 6:31 AM
The first quarter is usually the best for a candidate. Given that Fred had been trying to build up excitement for his candidacy for months, declaring should have let loose all of his pent-up support. It didn't. Romney, who I dislike, raised $6.5 million on his first *day*.
It is not early in the process. The way the calendar has advanced, both Democrats and Republicans will have a nominee in about 4 months.
Posted by Teresa | October 2, 2007 7:08 AM
Angus is exactly right. The Democrats are thumping the Republicans nearly 2 to 1 in fundraising. If Republicans were holding back their funds until Fred entered the race, he would have substantially higher totals.
Third quarter fundraising totals are always the lowest because people are on vacation and not thinking about politics and donating. The fact that Obama still raised $20 million is phenomenal. I suspect Hillary will have even more which is why she is waiting to release her numbers.
Posted by NoDonkey | October 2, 2007 7:26 AM
I'm saving my money until we have a nominee.
Any of the Republican Presidential candidates are head and shoulders above the corrupt, unqualified, unaccomplished nitwit who is going to be offered up by the absolutely worthless Democrat Party.
My main goal is to defeat whichever human disaster the Democrats intend to foist on this country.
Which Republican candidate it is, is secondary. I'd be comfortable with any of them.
Posted by dhunter | October 2, 2007 8:10 AM
I'll second that NoDonkey
Posted by Teresa | October 2, 2007 9:34 AM
I suspect Hillary will have even more which is why she is waiting to release her numbers.
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How did I ever guess? Hillary brings in $27 million in the third quarter.
Hope you are saving your pennies NoDonkey. The Republicans will need them.
Posted by FZappa | October 2, 2007 10:48 AM
Ed,
The $3 million Q3 number for Ron Paul is floating around the web as fact based on the WSJ piece, but the Paul campaign has neither released numbers nor verified the $3 million.
Considering that Paul raised $1.2 million in online donations alone in the Sept. 24-30 week, I would be pretty surprised if his final Q3 number were only 3 mil.