December 19, 2007

McCain Making A Move In New Hampshire -- And Iowa?

It's too bad that Phil Rizzuto passed away earlier this year, because we could have used him for the political play-by-play in the two weeks left before the Iowa caucuses. Mitt Romney has begun to regain his footing in Iowa, but may be slipping in New Hampshire. And as it turns out, John McCain may have begun a comeback in both states, according to Rasmussen:

In many places around the country, Mitt Romney is facing a challenge from Mike Huckabee. However, in New Hampshire, Huck-a-mania never took hold. But, following endorsements from the Manchester Union Leader, the Boston Globe, and Senator Joe Lieberman, John McCain is now challenging Romney in the state he won eight years ago.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state shows Romney with 31% support, McCain at 27% and no one else close. Rudy Giuliani attracts 13% and Huckabee barely reaches double digits at 11%. This is the first time any candidate has been within single digits of Romney in several months. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary bounce or a lasting change.

Romney had New Hampshire by double digits last week. Now Rasmussen has McCain inside the margin of error. McCain won New Hampshire in 2000 and has a strong base of support, so his competitiveness there comes as no real surprise.

Iowa, however, is another story. McCain skipped Iowa in 2000, leaving Hawkeyes cold on McCain in 2007. He tried doing more campaigning there in this cycle but skipped the Ames poll, where Mike Huckabee's fortunes began to turn. Now, however, Rasmussen has McCain improving in Iowa to a clear third place at 14%, six points ahead of Giuliani and Thompson. Huckabee and Romney have split 55% of the vote in Iowa, but a third place finish for McCain could present him with enough momentum to make it over the hump in New Hampshire.

If Huckabee wins Iowa and McCain wins New Hampshire after a third-place finish in Iowa, he may well rally fiscal conservatives to his banner and away from Mitt Romney. McCain isn't dead yet -- and may have more life in him than anyone guesses. He still has to find a way to reach accommodation with a significant part of the base, but if it comes down to McCain and Huckabee in the early days, he may have a shot at doing so.

UPDATE: The Corner sees what I'm seeing:

John McCain -- not Fred Thompson -- is becoming the choice of disaffected Huckaboomers. McCain has picked up six points since the last survey, Huckabee has lost 11. Romney has gained four. Fred has gained nothing. And if the poll is correct, then Iowa is becoming a three-way race. It is also very interesting to see that Huck's supporters are the most dedicated, and that he is the second choice for so many Iowa Republicans. (On a side note, I'm going to ask my mother for one of those 'Huckabee red' sweaters for Christmas.) Meanwhile, in the New Hampshire poll, Rudy is down to 13 percent. The Rudy-backers who didn't go to Huckabee are going to McCain. McCain has somehow become the second choice of both Rudy and Huckabee supporters. He appears to be everyone's candidate of last resort.

If it goes into a three-way between Huckabee, Giuliani, and McCain, which one gets the most conservative votes?

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