Get PhotoCrank at PhotoCrank!
January 14, 2008

Why Bother To Publish It?

When looking at polls, readers should always review the sampling to determine their predictive value. After some of the strange polling in the 2004 and 2006 election, most people have become more educated on how to spot poor polling efforts, even when presented by major media outlets like the New York Times and CBS News. One would also think that the survey debacle in New Hampshire would make news organizations like CBS and the Gray Lady a little more circumspect than before.

One would be incorrect:

Republican voters have sharply altered their views of the party’s presidential candidates following the early contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, with Senator John McCain, once widely written off, now viewed more favorably than any of his major competitors, according to the latest nationwide New York Times/CBS News Poll. ...

On the Democratic side, Senator Barack Obama’s victory in Iowa has improved his standing within the party on a critical measure: his electability. The percentage of Democrats who say he would be the strongest candidate against the Republicans has more than doubled in a month, to 35 percent from 14 percent in December.

And how did the NYT and CBS partnership determine these trends? They surveyed a grand total of 504 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. That at least might pass the smell test, although it makes for suspect predictive value. For the Republicans, they managed only 282 likely primary voters, one of the worst efforts since the Los Angeles Times couldn't find 180 registered Republicans for its polling late last month -- and predicted that Romney had overcome Huckabee's Iowa surge.

On the basis of this sample, in which every respondent accounts for better than 0.3% of the electorate, both CBS and the Paper of Record record a huge surge in support for John McCain. It's certainly possible that this surge has materialized, but it could also be that their sample inadvertently oversampled McCain supporters. Less than 300 likely Republican voters nationwide simply doesn't have any predictive value as a sample; it's worse than the LA Times' effort, which only focused on Iowa.

It appears that pollsters took no lessons from their debacle among Democrats in New Hampshire. Are they looking for even more embarrassment? Why bother to publish such an anemically-sampled poll?

UPDATE: Here's the CBS version of the poll internals. Go to the last page to see the sampling.

Posted by Ed Morrissey on January 14, 2008 5:31 AM | Comments () | TrackBacks (0)

Sphere It - Email this post Print Posts

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/tabhartas.cgi/16613

Comments
Please note that unverified Disqus users will have comments held in moderation. Please visit Disqus to register and verify your account. Comments from verified users will appear immediately.

About

Ed Morrissey has blogged at Captain's Quarters since 2003, and has a daily radio show at BlogTalkRadio, where he serves as Political Director. Called "Captain Ed" by his readers, Ed is a father and grandfather living in the Twin Cities area of Minnesota, a native Californian who moved to the North Star State because of the weather.

Read More

My Other Blog

The Crows Nest

Another Great Mention Of BTR

I can't help it -- I love it when we get attention from the press. Reuters and CNet give us a nice plug in an article also linked at Huffington Post. It also mentions me, although it misses the name of my radio show, Heading Right Radio. Give it a read!

Jon Swift Made A List

The satirical blogger, Jon Swift, has his list of the best posts for 2007 -- as selected by the bloggers themselves. Be sure to check out the extensive list, including one from Captain's Quarters!

Who Is Raul Baduel?

Fausta takes a look at the "most interesting man in Venezuela", a former Chavez ally turned opponent over Hugo's attempted coup by referendum. If you haven't heard of Raul Baduel before, you should acquaint yourself with him now.

No Libel In The Blogosphere?

Picking up on a paper written by Glenn "Instapundit" Reynolds, Shaun Mullen talks about libel in the blogosphere, and why almost no legal action has ever been attempted against bloggers. Shaun has personal experience in this regard, and he has an excellent take on Glenn's piece. My first thought -- how many lawyers would take a case for the kind of money one would expect to get from a blogger?

The Tyrant Is Not Amused

So says Michael Stickings of The Reaction, one of the few liberal bloggers to see the threat from Hugo Chavez to liberty and regional security. His referendum on dictatorship has proven rather unpopular, threatening an embarrassing loss at the polls for the man who declares his commitment to socialism in the most dire terms possible. Read all of Michael's excellent update on the December 2nd poll.

Watcher's Council Nominations

It feels like years since I've linked to the Watcher of Weasels nominations for the best blog posts of the week on national security -- and it probably has been years, now that I think about it. Check it out this week, as the Council has been kind enough to nominate one of my posts.

The Old Woman

Pat Buchanan has a new book out, Day of Reckoning, which I have not yet had a chance to review. According to Rick Moran, I needn't bother. Buchanan informs his readers that America has passed into twilight. Moran refers to Buchanan as an "old woman". Don't miss this post.

Norman Podhoretz Responds

Accused of using a manufactured quote by Andrew Sullivan, Norman Podhoretz responds rather forcefully at Commentary's blog, Contentions. Podhoretz notes that Sullivan and The Economist both seem to miss the fact that the Iranians often edit Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's speeches for their own political benefit. Amir Taheri, who published the quote on which Podhoretz relied, produces the source material for the remarks by Khomeini eschewing Iranian nationalism for Islamist triumphalism. Will Sullivan apologize?

Fred Thompson On The War

Pajamas Media has a great interview with Fred Thompson as the first of its conversations with Republican candidates on the war. Thompson has one of his best web appearances in this entry -- sharp, engaged, articulate, and resolute. He talks about the fallacy of believing a nation at war can have both guns and butter, and what it takes to win a war. Don't miss it!

New Pajamas Media Podcast On BlogWorld Expo!

Don't miss Pajamas Media's new XM show, PJM Political, now available for podcast and download at PJM's site. I'm one of the featured segments, as well as Glenn Reynolds, Hugh Hewitt, James Lileks, Ed Driscoll, and more. Be sure to check it out!

Captain's Quarters Makes The Finals -- Twice!

I've been honored to be named a finalist in two different categories of the 2007 Weblog Awards -- Best Blog and Best Conservative Blog! Be sure to cast your votes in all catgories, and to use the opportunity to discover some new and worthy voices ....

UPDATE: We finished in third place for Best Conservative Blog and fourth in the overall Best Blog competition. Thanks to everyone who voted for Captain's Quarters, and I hope you enjoyed a new blog or two during the effort!

Help Project Valour-IT Make Us All Winners!

The Navy team at Soldier's Angels can use your help to make everyone a winner! Donate to the Project Valour-IT fundraiser for the Navy team and help us give our wounded warriors an opportunity to shine.

Crow's Nest Mostly Unmanned

Yes, I know the Crow's Nest has mostly been moribund since the site's relaunch. I do plan on using it more often in the future, I promise. I'll be spending a little more time on these posts as a way to link out to the blogosphere. Keep an eye on this space.

Also, please note that I've put the Amazon search bar on the main page, in the right sidebar. If you want to do some shopping at Amazon -- and who doesn't? -- be sure to shop through Captain's Quarters. Amazon does pay a small percentage of the sale to me, and it helps pay for a few sundries related to the blog. Much appreciated!

OpenCongress Web Widget

Ever wanted to announce your support or opposition to Congressional legislation? OpenCongress now has a web widget that allows bloggers to do exactly that. Take a look at this, and check out how easily you can build your own.

Maybe They're Flotation Devices?

The Australian Navy foots the bill for breast augmentations. The Labour Party would like to know why, and probably so would most of the voters in Australia.

Archives

Subscription


Lijit Search

blog advertising
Blogroll

Captain's Quarters features an authoritative blogroll, listing many websites that feature the top political thinking on the Internet. In order to make the list easier to navigate, it has been divided into a number of sections.

Click on the section title to expand the list.

Northern Alliance
Hugh Hewitt
Captain's Quarters
Fraters Libertas
Lileks
Power Line
SCSU Scholars
Shot In The Dark
Northern Alliance Radio Network
101st Fighting Keyboardist
Blogs for Bush
Sister Ships
Recent Comments