Florida A Four-Way Tie: Rasmussen
Rasmussen has the crucial Florida contest a four-way tie for the Republican primary, with Fred Thompson not far back in fifth place. John McCain leads by a single point at the moment, with Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Rudy Giuliani all within two points of the current holder of Big Mo. That motion has appeared to slow in Florida since McCain's big New Hampshire win, as Survey USA had him up by ten in the immediate aftermath:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds four candidates essentially tied for the lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. It’s McCain 19%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, and Huckabee 17%. Fred Thompson is a few points off the pace at 11% while Ron Paul is a distant sixth with support from 5% of Likely Primary Voters.The race in Florida is very fluid. Just 45% of Likely Primary Voters say they are “certain” to vote for the candidate they currently support. Another 45% say they could change their mind while 10% do not even have a first choice.
Giuliani enjoys the most solid support—63% of his voters are “certain” they will vote for him. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Romney’s voters are that certain along with 42% of McCain fans and 41% of those who support Huckabee. Just 9% of Giuliani voters say there is a “good chance” they could change their mind. That figure ranges from 16% to 18% for the other three top candidates in Florida.
What does this tell us? Giuliani has just about reached his floor in Florida. The rest of the candidates could lose or gain tremendously based on the results of the preceding three primary contests in Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina. If anyone picks up momentum from these contests, they could dazzle Floridians into a show of unity that would have tremendous implications for Super Tuesday voting. If the three get split, it might leave Florida as the final all-out contest to avoid a brokered convention.
These results favor Giuliani, although obviously not as much as earlier results did. He still retains his lead in favorability and in voter loyalty. Huckabee has a surprisingly high unfavorable rating in this survey (38%), and McCain's 30% gives him a little less breathing room than he'd like. In fact, Rudy is the only candidate whose unfavorable rating is below 30% among likely Republican voters in Florida.
The issues favor Giuliani and McCain slightly as well. The war on terror is named important by 83%, followed by ethics and corruption at 73% and the economy at 72%. Both score well on the first, and split the next two. If those remain foremost in voter consciousness and McCain doesn't win another primary, Giuliani will likely capture his firewall and set himself up for Super Tuesday. If McCain manages to win one of the three or more, the fluidity in the race may give him enough momentum to steal Florida and its winner-take-all treasure of delegates.
Mitt Romney has a shot here too, as does Huckabee, if they win a primary here. Fred Thompson looks more like a long shot, having to vault over four other contenders, but it's not impossible. It's looking like Florida will provide a microcosm of the GOP race, and perhaps become a bellwether in resolving it.
Posted by Ed Morrissey on January 14, 2008 9:08 AM | Comments () | TrackBacks (1)
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