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January 15, 2008

Michigan Primaries Predictions

I'll live blog tonight as the results come in from Michigan's primaries. I haven't had a chance to post my predictions for this evening, so I'll do it now and take my lumps later. For the Democrats, the choice is pretty easy, since Hillary is the only major candidate on the ballot; I predict that she will gain 65% of a very low turnout, while Uncommitted gets 25% and the other 10% goes to the rest of the ballot.

I predict that the crossover vote will not be as heavy as predicted, discouraged in part by lousy weather. Three inches of snow wouldn't keep motivated voters from reaching the polls, but I don't think that the Republican slate will motivate non-Republicans to turn out in force while it's dark, snowy, and miserable on the roads. That favors Mitt Romney, and I think he edges out John McCain for his first significant win. My full prediction:

Romney - 30%
McCain - 28%
Huckabee - 17%
Giuliani - 12%
Thompson - 6%
Paul - 4%

I got New Hampshire wrong on the Democrats, but I had plenty of company. Let's see how this turns out ....


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