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January 19, 2008

Barack's Nightmare?

The Democrats in Nevada have begun to go to the caucuses, and we have seen little in actual returns. However, if the entrance polling by CNN reflects reality, Barack Obama has some reason for worry. According to the demographics, over 70% of the caucusers are 45 years of age or older, and 59% of them are women. That looks like the caucusers have played directly into the demographic wheelhouse of Hillary Clinton.

Based on those numbers, I'd expect Hillary to handily beat Obama in Nevada. If she doesn't, it may mean some recalculation about her strength in two categories that she needs to beat Obama's strength among younger voters. I'll keep an eye on this race and update the post as more returns come in.

UPDATE: CNN calls Nevada for Hillary, but she's only got a 6-point lead over Barack, 51%-45%. Given the strong demographics in her favor, this isn't exactly an impressive showing. Obama will get almost as many delegates, and people will question her strength, especially after South Carolina's primary if Obama wins it as projected.

John Edwards' support is practically non-existent at 4%.

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