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February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Live Blog

I've just returned from participating in our state Republican caucus, and now it's time to take a look at the results from the rest of the country. It's a good night thus far for John McCain, but Romney's won his share of delegates, too. Mike Huckabee has swept the South, it appears, and we will start seeing California results in the next few minutes.

For the Democrats, it looks as though Hillary and Obama are splitting states, but Obama's winning big where he wins at all. Hillary's wins tend to be smaller. With all of the Democratic states proportionally allocating their delegates, can Obama edge Hillary for the night?

Reverse chronological live-blogging below ....

11:40 - Most of the results are in now. McCain had a very good but not great night, as did Mike Huckabee, who beat expectations. Mitt Romney won a number of smaller state contests. McCain will benefit from Huckabee's success, but he hasn't closed out Romney altogether. He certainly maintained his momentum from Florida, though, and it will take a serious blow to deflect his trajectory to the nomination. If McCain can make the sale at CPAC, he'll have little to worry about.

I'll have more tomorrow on both races.

11:19 - Karl Rove estimates that McCain may have won 550 delegates tonight, and thinks Romney will win 220 and Huckabee 200. That puts McCain about 60% of the way to the nomination, but doesn't close it out. McCain did win all of the winner-take-all states.

11:14 - Fox calls California for McCain, which seemed obvious for a while now. Big win for McCain, but the delegate counts may be tricky. I'd guess he'll get 100 delegates minimum, so he'll be above 500 shortly.

11:09 - I'm struck by the delegate totals for McCain not being a lot higher than it is at the moment. We wondered whether McCain could deliver a knock-out blow, but so far it doesn't appear to be materializing. He'll be in command, but the race appears to be still open.

11:02 - California is looking grim for Romney. With 13% of precincts reporting, he's running 19 points behind McCain. Remember Zogby saying that Romney had an eight-point lead? Once again, Zogby strikes again! How exactly does he stay in business?

10:56 - Fox has delegate updates, and Romney remains in second place -- for the moment. He's ahead of Huckabee 160-146, while McCain has 371.

10:53 - Tennessee and Missouri get called for Huckabee and McCain, respectively. CNN hasn't updated the delegate totals, at least not yet ...

10:50 - They've now called Colorado for Romney. At this point, he's probably won all of the states he will; perhaps he has a shot at Alaska, but Romney's trailing everywhere else.

10:32 - About to go live with Hugh Hewitt ...

10:31 - For the Democrats, at the moment Obama has more pledged normal delegates than Hillary. Her lead now comes from the pledged superdelegates.

10:24 - CNN just called Minnesota for Romney. He also won North Dakota, Utah, Montana, Massachusetts, and has a strong early lead in Colorado.

10:19 - Minnesota has 34% of its precincts reporting, and Romney leads 39% to McCain's 23%. I'd like to take credit for it, of course ....

10:15 - In looking at these results, one has to say that Mike Huckabee had more strength than anyone gave credit. According to CNN, Huckabee has won Alabama, Arkansas, and of course West Virginia, and he's clinging to narrow leads in Tennessee and Georgia.

10:06 - On with King and Michael on AM 1280 The Patriot now.


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