February 19, 2008

Wisconsin Primary Live Blog

Will Hillary Clinton surprise everyone and win in Wisconsin? Can Barack Obama beat back Hillary's late challenge? Since my evening meeting got canceled, I'll be live blogging the Wisconsin poll results. Of course we're also looking at Washington and Hawaii, but Washington's Democratic delegates have already gone to Obama. There won't be much drama in the Republican races in Wisconsin and Washington, but we'll keep an eye on them as well.

Updates will come in reverse chronological order, as normal (CST) ...

9:37 - Calling it a night. Looks like a solid win for Obama, one that will help him in two weeks in Texas and Ohio. Hillary can just about hit the panic button now. If she can't win both Texas and Ohio on March 4th, the Democratic Party will start calling for her withdrawal to avoid the convention meltdown. I'll have more tomorrow.

9:22 - The splits look to be holding up. With 40% of the precincts reporting, Obama is winning by 13 points, while McCain is up 18.

9:19 - "We're going to have to parent better, turn off the TV, put away the video games"? Well, I can't argue with that, but it isn't the role of a President or the government to dictate that.

9:14 - Is he ad-libbing? He looked lost for a moment, as if he forgot what he wanted to say -- on the point that inspiration isn't everything.

9:09 - He just got done talking about how he's going to subsidize health care, then he talked about how bad the VA is. Well, that's government-subsidized health care -- that's the model.

9:05 - CNN is giving free coverage to the whole stump speech. Hillary could have a real complaint here, as could John McCain. Are they going to give Obama a full hour here? We're already halfway there.

9:04 - Free college education for people who do community service? I'd like to see the expenses for that and how he intends to pay for it, since it's cost on both ends.

8:55 - His faith in the American people has been vindicated -- because they're voting for him? It really is all about him, isn't it?

8:50 - Why did Obama run this cycle instead of waiting until he had more experience? "I'm running because of what Dr. King called the fierce urgency of now... Our planet is in peril." But why does that make him the best candidate to address the Fierce Urgency of Now? He never quite gets around to explain that.

8:48 - Michael Stickings, one of the best of the progressive bloggers, is also live-blogging.

8:46 - Hope, change, yada yada yada. Even some of Obama's crowd looked bored when CNN panned the camera around the room.

8:39 - Obama leads by eleven with 8% reporting, 55-44. McCain is still up by 20. Paul still has 4%.

8:36 - Big-time diss: Obama's about to step all over Hillary Clinton's speech. Heh.

8:32 - Hillary is also hammering on the theme of action instead of words. McCain will appreciate the help!

8:31 - Ron Paul got his 4%. No matter how many or few candidates are in the race, Paul gets his 4%. It's the definition of "fringe".

8:29 - Obama up 13 points with 3% reporting, 56-43; McCain up by 20, 56-36.

8:22 - CNN projects Obama as the Wisconsin winner. The question will be in how big the split will be in delegates.

8:19 - "I will work every day to ensure that America is not deceived by an eloquent but empty call for change."

8:18 - Barack Obama will win big in Wisconsin, it seems. He won men by 61%-35% and women by 51%-49%.

8:16 - John McCain's giving a good speech. He talks about his experience and how he knows how things work, and that he knows who he is. "I haven't lived a day when I haven't been proud, proud, of my country."

8:02 - CNN's exit polling is showing a big win in Wisconsin ...

8:00 - Polls closing; CNN calls Wisconsin for McCain, which means it must be a large margin involved. They think Obama may be leading in Wisconsin based on the exit polling.

7:47 - CNN's showing the big problem facing the Democrats. Even if one candidate runs the table from here on out on a 55-45 basis, neither can pull significantly ahead of the other.

7:37 - Here are some interesting numbers CNN's releasing from their exit polls. Voters under 30: Obama wins, 73-27. Over 60? Clinton wins 60-39. Huckabee and McCain both win 45% among conservatives, which indicates McCain should win this in a walk.

7:25 - CNN wants to make a big deal about the Republican race, but let's keep this in mind -- John McCain only needs to get 35% of the vote from here out to win the nomination before the convention. It's over.

7:23 - Oh, goody. Bill O'Reilly is covering the gripping Paul McCartney divorce case. Back to CNN!

7:20 - Jim Geraghty hears that the first two waves of exit polling show Obama winning Wisconsin 60-40. A couple of things to keep in mind: the first two waves of exit polling showed John Kerry beating George Bush in South Carolina 57-43 in 2004. The exit polling really needs to be taken as a whole for predictive analysis, and exit polls do not always do a great job of predicting specific votes.

7:16 - CNN's panel of Democrats are arguing whether the Clintons engage in race-baiting by pointing out Obama's support among black voters. They have five people on this panel, and as far as I can tell, not a Republican among them -- and Paul Begala defending the Clintons. Diversity in media!

7:09 - How cool is the First Mate? Tonight's our anniversary -- 14 years. We celebrated on Sunday because we thought we had a Marriage Encounter board meeting tonight. She doesn't mind me spending the evening covering the primaries. That's why she's the best, or at least one of the many reasons ....

7:05 - Polls close at 8 pm. I am posting in CST...

7:03 - Obama's already in Texas. Does he have that much confidence in the cheeseheads?


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» MSNBC CALLS IT…. from Comments from Left Field
And the winner is… Barack Obama.  (All apologies, MSNBC doesn’t have the actual story up yet, just the breaking news banner). Twenty minutes after the polls closed, Obama is declared the winner of Wisconsin, leading one to believe it will... [Read More]

» MSNBC CALLS IT…. from Comments from Left Field
And the winner is… Barack Obama.  (All apologies, MSNBC doesn’t have the actual story up yet, just the breaking news banner). Twenty minutes after the polls closed, Obama is declared the winner of Wisconsin, leading one to believe it will... [Read More]

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