The LA Times reports that their most recent poll shows John Kerry handily beating John Edwards, 56%-24%, in the upcoming California primary on Tuesday, March 2nd:

A week before California's Democratic presidential primary, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry leads North Carolina Sen. John Edwards by a lopsided 56% to 24% among the state's likely voters in the race, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll. ... Following the pattern set in other states, Kerry's support in the primary cuts across a broad range of demographic groups. He wins majorities of men, women, liberals, moderates, Latinos, union members and senior citizens, among others.

Even primary voters who cite the economy or jobs as their No. 1 issue — a group that has tilted toward Edwards in other states — prefer Kerry to his main rival, 69% to 26%, the poll found.

These numbers spell doom for the Edwards campaign, unless he can take New York at the same time Kerry takes California. Without at least one of the two main prizes on Super Tuesday, Edwards falls so far short that his mathematical possibilities for stopping Kerry prior to the convention mostly disappear. On the other hand, it's worth remembering that the LA Times conducted some of the most egregiously biased polling in recent memory during the gubernatorial recall election last year, and its forecasting credibility was well-nigh destroyed in the debacle.

One wonders, though, why John Edwards still hasn't taken Hugh Hewitt up on his offer to allow him to co-host his radio show. It's broadcast extensively throughout California, and while Hugh's regular listeners hardly fit the profile of an Edwards voter, the resultant publicity would drive Democrats to the radio dial in droves just to hear Edwards tilt at the Hewitt windmill. Imagine if he held his own during the debates (and I believe that Hugh would be very fair in allowing him to speak his mind) -- how far would that go to demonstrating Edwards' seriousness as a candidate? Perhaps that's the problem; Edwards isn't that serious, and in a hours-long format, that would be quickly discovered.

In other interesting data from the same poll -- and this leads me to believe that the LA Times is playing this poll more or less straight -- Arnold Schwarzenegger's twin referendums intended on creating bond issues to relieve the massive California shortfall are surprisingly leading by large majorities, 51% and 58% to 34% and 23% opposed, respectively. Just two days ago, Tim Russert of Meet the Press described these as in danger of being defeated, but this kind of win would greatly increase the Governator's prestige on the eve of a national election. It's good news for the rookie politician, who seems to have delivered on his promise to break the gridlock in Sacramento and get the state government focused on accomplishments rather than recriminations.

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Tracked on February 24, 2004 11:30 AM