USA Today reports that Wisconsin has started to tip towards George Bush, who has opened an eight-point lead in a state Al Gore carried by a hair in 2000, according to a new USAT/CNN/Gallup poll:

President Bush has widened his lead over Democrat John Kerry in the battleground state of Wisconsin, a USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll shows. ... The newest poll should hearten Republicans. President Bush holds a lead of 8 percentage points among likely voters and a lead of 4 points among the larger group of registered voters.

The week before the Republican National Convention in New York City, Bush held a 3-percentage point lead over his challenger Kerry. Now, that lead has ballooned to 8 points.

His edge is within the poll's margin of error. But the momentum in the state in Bush's direction — and the fact he has gotten over the 50% threshold — is troubling to Democrats. They figure Kerry probably must hold Wisconsin if he is to win the election.

Actually, only the registered-voter lead is within the margin of error; the more reliable likely-voter result MOE is 5 points. And USA Today misstates the Bush RV lead; the results show him ahead, 50-45, the outside edge of the MOE.

Quite simply, losing Wisconsin is probably fatal to Kerry's election chances. Due to reapportionment, Bush already has a seventeen-vote lead in the Electoral College if he just hangs onto the states he won the last time. Taking Wisconsin's 10 electoral votes from Kerry gives a commanding lead and requires Kerry to take more than one state from Bush. Not only that, but losing Wisconsin indicates that the entire Upper Midwest may have gone soft on Kerry, especially Minnesota, which has been running dead even for the past couple of weeks. The erosion of support and enthusiasm for the Kerry campaign continues, and unless Kerry can do something spectacular, the momentum may result in an across-the-board beating the Democrats can hardly afford after a similar result in 2002.

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» Wisconsin leans to Bush - what does it mean? from Secure Liberty
Captain Ed reports along with Powerline on a new USAToday/Gallup Poll showing President Bush with a very healthy 8 point lead in Wisconsin. Why is this significant? The newest poll should hearten Republicans. President Bush holds a lead of 8 percentag... [Read More]

Tracked on September 14, 2004 9:50 AM