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October 19, 2004
Bush Crosses 50% In ABC Poll

The Bush campaign got more good news this afternoon from the ABC News trackng poll taken over the weekend, which shows George Bush leading John Kerry by 5 points and Bush over the 50% mark for the first time:

Support for President Bush has crept above the critical 50-percent mark for the first time in two weeks, but one group new voters could be John Kerry's wildcard.

Fifty-one percent of likely voters support Bush, 46 percent support Kerry and 1 percent prefer Ralph Nader in the latest ABC News tracking poll, based on interviews Saturday through Monday. That's a slight lead for the president after a 48 percent to 48 percent dead heat the second half of last week.

The increase in Bush's support comes from weekend polling as well, which usually favors Democrats. The internals of this poll also augur well for Bush:

* Only 12% of voters classify their votes as "movable", and Bush leads among them by 4 points.

* Bush pulls almost three times more Democrats from Kerry (13%) than Kerry pulls Republicans from Bush (5%).

* Kerry only leads women in this poll 50-47, within the margin of error, while Bush leads men by 14 points.

Their sample comprises more Democrats than Republicans among the likely voters (36-34, with 26% being independent), making this a more reliable look at the situation at this point. Including this information, where the CBS/NYT poll does not, leads me to conclude that the pollsters used a more honest process than those who fail to disclose their samples, at any rate.

This poll shows that Bush has clearly regained the momentum after the debates. Kerry shot his bolt and came up short. Barring any surprises -- a tall order, with the Kerry/Edwards penchant for wild accusations and myth propogation -- Bush could be heading for an unequivocal victory two weeks from tonight.

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Posted by Ed Morrissey at October 19, 2004 5:00 PM

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» Bush Ahead in Most All Polls from Josh Ferguson
According to RealClearPolitics.com's average of the national polls, Bush has a decent lead with just 2 weeks until the election. [Read More]

Tracked on October 19, 2004 6:55 PM



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