In what looks like an outlier from an otherwise fairly reliable polling group, Gallup and CNN report that George Bush has opened an eight-point lead over John Kerry in Florida and moved past the 50-point mark:

President Bush outpolled Democratic challenger John Kerry by 8 points among likely Florida voters surveyed in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released Monday, but other polls indicated a tighter race.

In the CNN poll, Bush had 51 percent and Kerry 43 percent among likely voters interviewed. The result was similar among registered voters: 51 percent for Bush and 42 percent for Kerry. Independent candidate Ralph Nader drew the support of 1 percent of respondents in both categories. ...

The results were consistent with the last poll Gallup conducted in Florida, which found in late September that 52 percent of respondents chose Bush and 43 percent Kerry. Yet it was notably different from three recent statewide polls, all of which showed differences well within the margins of error, indicating no clear leader.

The sample on this poll is larger than most statewide polls, with a pool of 768 likely voters among a total of 909 registered voters. It clashes with polls done at the same time by SurveyUSA with a similar sample, and smaller ones by Zogby and Rassmussen. Gallup hasn't posted its internals yet, but these results would mean that the race hasn't moved at all in the past month in the Sunshine State, a remarkable proposition.

Earlier this week, I theorized that polls would start showing significant shifts; methodologies will get tweaked to ensure the best final prediction of the outcome. The pollster who comes closest to the eventual outcome gets bragging rights for the next two years, and despite whatever biases may or may not have been in play before, the only prize that matters this week is getting it right. Watch the major polls this week to see how much convergence this competitive pressure creates.

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» 2004 Election: State Poll Analysis #16 from Secure Liberty
This is the sixteenth in a series focusing on our continuing exclusive feature, Tony Bauco's analysis of all the state polls. As usual, we'll start with Tony's comments: We had a relatively quiet day in terms of the number of new polls and yet there ... [Read More]

Tracked on October 26, 2004 8:48 AM