Captain's Quarters Blog

« McKinney Stumbles Into Runoff | Main | Bush Casts First Veto On Embryonic Stem-Cell Funding »

July 19, 2006
Gallup Shows Rice Among Presidential Frontrunners

A new Gallup poll measures the viability of potential presidential candidates in 2008, and it contains a number of surprises. Gallup did not ask respondents to endorse one particular candidate but instead to indicate their acceptability or unacceptability as a potential party nominee. One name comes as a minor surprise for the Republicans:

A recent Gallup Panel poll asked Republicans and Democrats whether they would find each of several possible contenders for their party's 2008 presidential nomination to be "acceptable" nominees. Unlike other nomination ballot questions that measure respondents' first choice from among a list of possible candidates, this question paints a broader picture of the level of potential support and opposition for each candidate.

Hillary Clinton is the clear front-runner among Democrats when voters are asked to choose which one candidate they would prefer for the Democratic nomination for president, but the current poll finds Democrats are about equally likely to rate Clinton, John Edwards, and Al Gore as acceptable nominees. Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain typically vie for the lead in Republican preference polls, but a greater percentage of Republicans say they would find Giuliani acceptable than say this about McCain (73% to 55%). Four in 10 Republicans say they would not find McCain to be an acceptable GOP presidential nominee. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is also widely considered by Republicans to be an acceptable nominee.

Gallup's June 26-29 poll tested Democrats' (and Democrat-leaning independents') reactions to 13 potential candidates and Republicans' (and Republican leaning independents') reactions to 12 potential candidates. While none of the politicians evaluated in the poll have officially announced their candidacies for president, many have laid the groundwork for a run by visiting early primary and caucus states like Iowa or New Hampshire or by setting up political action committees to raise money for themselves and other candidates. Others have been talked about as potential candidates, even though some (like Rice and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush) have stated they do not intend to run.

A number of people would like to see Condi run in 2008, even though she has stated rather categorically that she has no interest in the position. One might expect her lack of experience in electoral politics would present a stumbling block to the GOP, but Gallup indicates that she has a higher acceptability rating than John McCain, who the press has anointed the Republican front-runner. Her unacceptability rating is much lower than McCain's who had one of the highest such ratings at 41%.

Dick Cheney rated 61% to take the prize in unacceptability, but others show large hurdles in gaining traction among Republican voters. Jeb Bush, George Pataki, and Newt Gingrich all have majority-unacceptable ratings, and the latter has made clear that he's seriously considering a run at the nomination. Of the 13 candidates listed, Giuliani and Rice have the lowest negative ratings, 25% and 29% respectively. George Allen, one of the conservative favorites, has an acceptable/unacceptable rating of 36/35, but has 29% undecided. Only Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee have more unknown votes.

As for the Democrats, the poll has some surprises as well. Hillary polls higher than one would expect, and her unacceptability rating comes in lower, at a mere 29%. That appears to indicate that party sentiment against her run is not as strong as some have reported. John Edwards actually tops the poll, despite having only served one term in the Senate, half of which he spent running for President and then Vice-President. Howard Dean, Tom Daschle, and Dennis Kucinich all have negative majorities, to no one's great surprise. Russ Feingold, one of the darlings of the hard Left, only garners 29% positive to 41% negative, showing a serious problem early in his bid.

John Kerry, in one of the big surprises, stil has 59% positive vs 40% negative. Even after his poor 2004 campaign and the $15 million he never spent, Democrats still see him as an acceptable candidate. Some people never learn.

Republicans seem more ready for a Giuliani campaign than one would have guessed, given Rudy's position on abortion and gun rights. None of these candidates from either party have gone through the crucible of a national campaign, except obviously Kerry and Edwards; expect these numbers to shift accordingly.

Oh, and one big non-surprise: Gallup never polled regarding Joe Lieberman's chances.

Sphere It Digg! View blog reactions
Posted by Ed Morrissey at July 19, 2006 10:59 AM

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry is

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Gallup Shows Rice Among Presidential Frontrunners:

» Giuliani Is The Republican Favorite from It Shines For All
"Only three candidates would be acceptable to a majority of Republicans -- Giuliani (73%), Rice (68%), and McCain (55%)," the latest Gallup Poll reports. Update: Captain's Quarters writes: Oh, and one big non-surprise: Gallup never polled regarding Joe... [Read More]

Tracked on July 19, 2006 12:45 PM

» Rudy Giuliani Watch: Giuliani Leads in Gallup Poll from FullosseousFlap's Dental Blog
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani smiles when asked by reporters about considering running for president in 2008 after he addressed the role of the community in the war on terror and disaster planning Tuesday, July 11, 2006, at Benedictine Univ... [Read More]

Tracked on July 19, 2006 3:04 PM

» Gallop Poll Shows Condi Strength! from Pekin Prattles
A newly-released poll....not the usual type, but an actual rating on each individual candidate....Shows unexpected positive ratings for Condi Rice. Capt. Ed writes well on the poll and its meaning at Captain's Quarters [Read More]

Tracked on July 20, 2006 8:06 AM


Design & Skinning by:
m2 web studios

blog advertising


Proud Ex-Pat Member of the Bear Flag League!