After their rocket attacks on Israel dwindled down to 10 yesterday, the commando raid on Baalbek has apparently infuriated Hezbollah into risking everything on a last-gasp series of volleys. A record number of missiles have flown over the border, and in one case hit near the West Bank town of Jenin:

Hezbollah launched its deepest strikes yet into Israel on Wednesday, firing a record number of more than 160 rockets. An Israeli-American was killed as he fled for home by bicycle, and a stray rocket hit the West Bank for the first time.

The intense rocket fire defied claims by Israeli leaders and generals that they have considerably weakened Hezbollah's military capabilities. It followed a two-day lull in Hezbollah rocket attacks, and came hours after Israeli commandos in Lebanon captured what Israel said were five Hezbollah guerrillas.

Police said at least 21 people were wounded in Wednesday's attacks, which brought the Israeli death toll in three weeks of fighting to 55, including 19 civilians. Israel's onslaught on Lebanon has killed at least 540, mostly civilians.

Hezbollah fighters have run gauntlets through IDF forces in southern Lebanon to get to the Blue Line with their launchers. They have fired and retreated at high speed, hoping to avoid return fire. They want to prove that they still have offensive capability against Israel, even thouugh their rockets do almost no damage to Israeli military assets.

It's impressive, but rather foolish. In the first place, Israel has already shown that they will not be deterred by rocket attacks, so the effort here is mostly wasted. Just as in Britain in 1940, the attacks on civilian populations has strengthened Israeli resolve, not diminished it. Tactically, Hezbollah's new operation is not much better than Japanese banzai attacks in the Pacific in WWII. They are sending their assets out into the open in a frontal charge that even when initially successful carries no strategic or political gain. All they do is expose their fighters to IDF fire -- and their rocket launchers.

The inventory of Hezbollah's rockets and missiles has been the topic of much discussion, but that isn't the critical materiel problem for the terrorists. The launchers are the weak spot, and they're relatively easy to hit. Mobile launchers are basically big trucks -- big, slow-moving, heat-generating vehicles that have to stay on established roads to manuever. Without air cover, these launchers can easily be spotted at targeted by israeli aircraft, and it doesn't take much to put one out of commission.

The decline of attacks in the last couple of days probably indicates a lack of launchers, and Hezbollah's desire to conserve enough of them for a single big offensive. This is what we're seeing now. If Israel destroys the rest of the launchers, it won't matter how many missiles and rockets Hezbollah has left -- they will just become useless stock. That's what Israel wants to keep Syria from resupplying to the terrorists, and that's why they blew up the roads as well as the airports.

Hezbollah will get its licks in today, but I doubt it will retain much capacity for rocket launches after this.

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